State with extensive power or influence over much of the world
Superpower
describes a
state
or
supranational union
that holds a dominant position characterized by the ability to exert
influence
or
project power
on a global scale.
[1]
[2]
[3]
This is done through the combined means of economic, military, technological, political, and cultural strength as well as
diplomatic
and
soft power
influence. Traditionally, superpowers are preeminent among the
great powers
. While a great power state is capable of exerting its influence globally, superpowers are states so influential that no significant action can be taken by the global community without first considering the positions of the superpowers on the issue.
[4]
In 1944, during
World War II
, the term was first applied to the
United States
, the
British Empire
, and the
Soviet Union
.
[5]
During the
Cold War
, the British Empire dissolved, leaving the United States and the Soviet Union to dominate world affairs. At the end of the Cold War and the
dissolution of the Soviet Union
in 1991, the United States became, and remains, the world's sole superpower, a position sometimes referred to as that of a "hyperpower".
[6]
[7]
[8]
Since the late
2010s
and into the
2020s
,
China
has been described as a new
superpower
,
[9]
[10]
[11]
[12]
[13]
as China poses "the most significant challenge of any nation-state in the world to the United States".
[14]
[15]
[16]
[Note 1]
Terminology and origin
[
edit
]
No agreed definition of what is a superpower exists and may differ between sources.
[7]
However, a fundamental characteristic that is consistent with all definitions of a superpower is a nation or state that has mastered the seven dimensions of state power, namely
geography
,
population
,
economy
,
resources
,
military
,
diplomacy
, and
national identity
.
[17]
The term was first used to describe nations with greater than
great power
status as early as 1944, but only gained its specific meaning with regard to the
United States
and the
Soviet Union
after
World War II
. This was because the United States and the Soviet Union had proved themselves to be capable of casting great influence in global politics and military dominance. The term in its current political meaning was coined by Dutch-American
geostrategist
Nicholas Spykman
in a series of lectures in 1943 about the potential shape of a new post-war world order. This formed the foundation for the book
The Geography of the Peace
, which referred primarily to the unmatched maritime global supremacy of the British Empire and the United States as essential for peace and prosperity in the world.
A year later, in 1944,
William T. R. Fox
, an American foreign policy professor, elaborated on the concept in the book
The Superpowers: The United States, Britain and the Soviet Union ? Their Responsibility for Peace
which spoke of the global reach of a super-empowered nation.
[18]
Fox used the word superpower to identify a new category of power able to occupy the highest status in a world in which?as the war then raging demonstrated?states could challenge and fight each other on a global scale. According to him, at that moment, there were three states that were superpowers, namely the United States, the Soviet Union, and the
United Kingdom
. The
British Empire
was the most
extensive empire
in world history and considered the foremost great power, holding sway over 25% of the world's population
[19]
and controlling about 25% of the Earth's total land area, while the United States and the Soviet Union grew in power before and during World War II. The UK would face serious political, financial, and colonial issues after World War II that left it unable to match Soviet or American power. Ultimately, Britain's empire would gradually dissolve over the course of the 20th century, sharply reducing its global power projection.
According to Lyman Miller, "[t]he basic components of superpower stature may be measured along four axes of power: military, economic, political, and cultural (or what political scientist
Joseph Nye
has termed "
soft power
")".
[20]
In the opinion of
Kim Richard Nossal
of
Queen's University
in Canada, "generally, this term was used to signify a political community that occupied a continental-sized landmass; had a sizable population (relative at least to other major powers); a superordinate economic capacity, including ample indigenous supplies of food and natural resources; enjoyed a high degree of non-dependence on international intercourse; and, most importantly, had a well-developed nuclear capacity (eventually, normally defined as
second strike
capability)".
[7]
In the opinion of Professor
Paul Dukes
, "a superpower must be able to conduct a global strategy, including the possibility of destroying the world; to command vast economic potential and influence; and to present a universal ideology". Although "many modifications may be made to this basic definition".
[21]
According to Professor June Teufel Dreyer, "[a] superpower must be able to project its power, soft and hard, globally".
[22]
In his book
Superpower: Three Choices for America's Role in the World
, Dr.
Ian Bremmer
, president of the
Eurasia Group
, argues that a superpower is "a country that can exert enough military, political, and economic power to persuade nations in every region of the world to take important actions they would not otherwise take".
[23]
Apart from its common denotation of the foremost post-WWII states, the term
superpower
has colloquially been applied by some authors retrospectively to describe various preeminent
ancient great empires
or
medieval great powers
, in works such as
Channel 5 (UK)
's documentary
Rome: The World's First Superpower
or the reference in
The New Cambridge Medieval History
to "the other superpower,
Sasanian Persia
".
[24]
Cold War
[
edit
]
The 1956
Suez Crisis
suggested that
Britain
, financially weakened by two world wars, could not then pursue its
foreign policy
objectives on an equal footing with the new superpowers without sacrificing
convertibility
of its
reserve currency
as a central goal of policy.
[25]
As the majority of World War II had been fought far from its national boundaries, the United States had not suffered the industrial destruction nor massive civilian casualties that marked the wartime situation of the countries in
Europe
or
Asia
. The war had reinforced the position of the United States as the world's largest long-term creditor nation
[26]
and its principal supplier of goods; moreover, it had built up a strong industrial and technological infrastructure that had greatly advanced its military strength into a primary position on the global stage.
[27]
Despite attempts to create multinational coalitions or legislative bodies (such as the
United Nations
), it became increasingly clear that the superpowers had very different visions about what the post-war world ought to look like and after the withdrawal of British aid to
Greece
in 1947, the United States took the lead in
containing
Soviet expansion
in the
Cold War
.
[28]
The two countries opposed each other ideologically, politically, militarily, and economically. The Soviet Union promoted the ideology of
Marxism?Leninism
,
planned economy
, and a
one-party state
whilst the United States promoted the ideologies of
liberal democracy
and the
free market
in a
capitalist
market economy
. This was reflected in the
Warsaw Pact
and
NATO
military alliances, respectively, as most of Europe became aligned with either the United States or the Soviet Union. These alliances implied that these two nations were part of an emerging
bipolar
world, in contrast with a previously multipolar world.
[
citation needed
]
The idea that the Cold War period revolved around only two blocs, or even only two nations, has been challenged by some scholars in the post?Cold War era, who have noted that the bipolar world only exists if one ignores all of the various movements and conflicts that occurred without influence from either of the two superpowers.
[29]
Additionally, much of the conflict between the superpowers was fought in
proxy wars
, which more often than not involved issues more complex than the standard Cold War oppositions.
[30]
After the Soviet Union disintegrated in the early 1990s, the term hyperpower began to be applied to the United States as the sole remaining superpower of the Cold War era.
[7]
This term, popularized by French foreign minister
Hubert Vedrine
in the late 1990s, is controversial and the validity of classifying the United States in this way is disputed. One notable opponent to this theory is
Samuel P. Huntington
, who rejects this theory in favor of a multipolar
balance of power
. Other international relations theorists such as
Henry Kissinger
theorize that because the threat of the Soviet Union no longer exists to formerly American-dominated regions such as Western Europe and Japan, American influence is only declining since the end of the Cold War because such regions no longer need protection or have necessarily similar foreign policies as the United States.
[31]
Post-Cold War era
[
edit
]
After the
dissolution of the Soviet Union
in 1991 which ended the
Cold War
, the
post?Cold War
world has in the past been considered by some to be a
unipolar
world,
[32]
[33]
with the
United States
as the world's sole remaining superpower.
[34]
In 1999, political scientist and author
Samuel P. Huntington
wrote: "The United States, of course, is the sole state with preeminence in every domain of power ? economic, military, diplomatic, ideological, technological, and cultural ? with the reach and capabilities to promote its interests in virtually every part of the world". However, Huntington rejected the claim that the world was unipolar, arguing: "There is now only one superpower. But that does not mean that the world is unipolar", describing it instead as "a strange hybrid, a uni-multipolar system with one superpower and several major powers". He further wrote that "Washington is blind to the fact that it no longer enjoys the dominance it had at the end of the Cold War. It must relearn the game of international politics as a major power, not a superpower, and make compromises".
[35]
Experts argue that this older single-superpower assessment of
global politics
is too simplified, in part because of the difficulty in classifying the
European Union
at its current stage of development. Others argue that the notion of a superpower is outdated, considering complex global economic interdependencies and propose that the world is
multipolar
.
[36]
[37]
[38]
[39]
A 2012 report by the
National Intelligence Council
predicted that the United States superpower status will have eroded to merely being first among equals by 2030, but that it would remain highest among the world's most powerful countries because of its influence in many different fields and global connections that the great regional powers of the time would not match.
[
citation needed
]
Additionally, some experts have suggested the possibility of the United States losing its superpower status completely in the future, citing speculation of its decline in power relative to the rest of the world, economic hardships, a declining dollar, Cold War allies becoming less dependent on the United States, and the emergence of future powers around the world.
[40]
[41]
[42]
According to a
RAND Corporation
paper by American diplomat
James Dobbins
, Professor Howard J. Shatz, and policy analyst Ali Wyne,
Russia
in the breakdown of a disintegrating unipolar world order, whilst not a peer competitor to the United States, would still remain a player and a potential
rogue state
that would undermine global affairs. The West could
contain
Russia with methods like those employed during the Cold War with the Soviet Union, though this would be tested by Russia's overt and covert efforts to destabilize Western alliances and political systems. On the other hand, China is a peer competitor to the United States that cannot be contained, and will be a far more challenging entity for the West to confront. The authors state that China's military dominance in the Asia-Pacific is already eroding American influence at a rapid pace, and the costs for the US to defend its interests there will continue to rise. Moreover, China's economic influence has already broken out of its regional confines long ago and is on track to directly contest the US role as the center for economic trade and commerce.
[43]
[44]
[45]
[46]
Proposed early superpowers
[
edit
]
There have been many attempts by historians to apply the term superpower retrospectively, and sometimes very loosely, to a variety of entities in the past. Recognition by historians of these older states as superpowers may focus on various superlative traits exhibited by them. The first states to actually exert influence and project their power at a global level (and not just regionally) and to be in fact superpowers in the modern sense of the concept were the states of the
Iberian peninsula
, namely the
Kingdom of Portugal
and
Habsburg Spain
,
[48]
[49]
which inaugurated the
European overseas expansion
in the 16th century, establishing vast
colonial empires
. The signing of the
Treaty of Tordesillas
, establishing the division of the lands discovered by Portugal and Spain, nominally divided the world between these superpowers until 1580, when there was the
Iberian Union
between the crowns of the monarchies of these nations that lasted until 1640. During the 17th century the
Portuguese Empire
was largely replaced by the
Dutch Empire
that made much of the 17th century part of the
Dutch Golden Age
. Soon after the Spanish and Dutch Empires were joined by the
French colonial Empire
from 1643 until 1815
[50]
[51]
from the reign of King
Louis XIV
until the defeat of
Napoleon
in the
Napoleonic Wars
[52]
though the French would then build a second colonial empire during the 19th century. After 1688, with the end of its Golden Age, the Dutch Empire was largely replaced by the
British Empire
,
[18]
after this country went through its
Glorious Revolution
in 1688 and its pioneering role in the industrialization process in the 18th century that would lead to global
hegemony
in the 19th century and early 20th century (before the
World War I
). By the end of the 19th century Germany had also acquired a colonial empire of notable size though smaller than those of Britain and France.
These are proposed examples of ancient or historical superpowers, taking into account that the knowledge of what the "known world" was constitued was extremely limited in past eras (for example, the ancient Romans never knew of the existence of the Americas or Australia and had extremely limited knowledge about East Asia). Many of the nations below were never superpowers in the modern sense (a nation capable of projecting power on a global scale), so in practice many were regional powers.
Many of the nations of this historical period were never superpowers, however they were regional powers with influence in their respective regions.
Note: Does not take into account city-states and stateless nomadic peoples.
- Fertile Crescent
in the
Early Bronze Age
In the early history of both regions contact between these civilization was very limited, long distance trade definitely occurred but primarily through long chains of intermediaries rather than directly.
- Fertile Crescent
in the
Middle Bronze Age
Really regular contact between Egypt, Mesopotamia and Anatolia really dates from this period. Mitanni was an important intermediary in the trade between these civilizations.
- Fertile Crescent
and
Mediterranean Sea
in the
Late Bronze Age
(known by the
Minoans
and
Mycenaean Greeks
)
- Indian Subcontinent
Contact with other civilizations was very limited, long distance trade with Mesopothamia definitely occurred but primarily through long chains of intermediaries rather than directly.
- East Asia
- Mesoamerica
- Olmec civilization
(isolated civilization, little information about their type of government)
- Andes
- Indian Subcontinent
- Known world
by the
Ancient Greeks
before the Hellenistic period
- Known world
by the
Ancient Romans
in their Republican era
The
Drachma
, minted by many states, most notably in the
Ptolemaic Egypt
was the reserve currency in the Mediterranean and Near East
- Known world
by the
Ancient Romans
in their Imperial era
Main
reserve currency
in the Mediterranean and Near East:
Roman Denarius
, later replaced by the
Roman Solidus
.
- East Asia
Not fully known outside East Asia, However, due to the
Silk Road
, the existence of these great powers was known, but little information about them reached the West.
- Mesoamerica
Isolated civilizations in relation to the
Afro-Eurasia
.
- Andes
Isolated civilization in relation to the
Afro-Eurasia
.
- Known world
by Medieval Europeans and Middle Easterners
Main
reserve currency
in the Mediterranean and Near East:
Roman Solidus
, later replaced by the
Dinar
, minted by the Caliphates.
- (Eastern) Roman Empire
- The Caliphates:
Rashidun Caliphate
,
Umayyad Caliphate
,
[66]
Fatimid Caliphate
and
Abbasid Caliphate
- Sultanate of Mogadishu
(Known by Arabs, Europeans and East Asians)
- Persia
(
Sassanid Empire
,
Ilkhanate
and the
Timurid Empire
) (known by Europeans, Indians and East Asians)
- Ethiopian Empire
(known by the Arabs, Indians, Europeans and later by the Chinese)
- Indian
empires:
Chola Empire
and
Delhi Sultanate
- China
:
Tang Empire
(known by East Asians, Indians and Middle Easterners but not by Europeans in detailed way),
[67]
Song Empire
(known by the Europeans in its very last years),
Mongol Empire
(known by Eurasians),
[68]
Great Yuan Empire
,
Great Ming Empire
- Sub-Saharan Africa
During the Middle Ages the region was known by Arab merchants. Europeans were aware that the region existed (to the point that
Mansa Musa
was mentioned in the
Catalan Atlas
), but little information about the place reached Europe.
- Mesoamerica
Isolated civilization in relation to the
Afro-Eurasia
.
- South America
Isolated civilizations in relation to the
Afro-Eurasia
.
- Planetary scale
Persia
(
Safavid Empire
and
Afsharid Empire
),
India
(
Mughal Empire
) and
China
(
Great Ming Empire
and
Great Qing Empire
) are important
great powers
, but not superpowers because these empires was not very significant as blue water forces and could not face up to the navies of European powers on the high seas.
- Planetary scale
According to historical statistics and research from the
OECD
, until the
early modern period
,
Western Europe
,
China
, and
India
accounted for roughly ⅔ of the world's GDP.
[79]
Superpower collapse
[
edit
]
Soviet Union/Russia
[
edit
]
Dramatic changes occurred in the
Soviet Union
and the
Eastern Bloc
during
the 1980s and early 1990s
, with
perestroika
and
glasnost
, the
fall of the Berlin Wall
in November 1989, and finally the
dissolution of the Soviet Union
in December 1991. As early as 1970,
Andrei Amalrik
had made
predictions of Soviet collapse
, and
Emmanuel Todd
made a similar prediction in 1976.
[80]
British Empire/United Kingdom
[
edit
]
The
Suez Crisis
of 1956 is considered by some commentators to be the beginning of the end of Britain's period as a superpower,
[81]
[82]
[83]
but other commentators have pointed much earlier such as in
World War I
, the
Depression of 1920-21
, the
Partition of Ireland
, the return of the
pound sterling
to the
gold standard
at its prewar parity in 1925, the
Fall of Singapore
, the loss of wealth from
World War II
, the end of
Lend-Lease Aid
from the United States in 1945, the postwar
Age of Austerity
, the
Winter of 1946?47
, the beginning of decolonization and the independence of
British India
as other key points in Britain's decline and loss of superpower status.
[84]
The Suez Crisis in particular is regarded by historians to be a political and diplomatic disaster for the British Empire, as it led to large-scale international condemnation, including extensive pressure from the United States and Soviet Union. This forced the British and the French to withdraw in embarrassment and cemented the increasingly-
bipolar
Cold War politics between the
Soviet Union
and
United States
. In the 1960s, the movement for decolonization reached its peak, with remaining imperial holdings achieving independence, accelerating the transition from the
British Empire
to the
Commonwealth of Nations
. As the Empire continued to crumble, the
home islands
of the United Kingdom later experienced deindustrialization throughout the 1970s, coupled with high inflation and industrial unrest that unravelled the
postwar consensus
. This led to some economists to refer to Britain as
the Sick Man of Europe
. In 1976, the United Kingdom had to seek assistance from the
International Monetary Fund
(IMF) which it had previously ironically helped create, receiving funding of $3.9 billion, the largest-ever loan to be requested up until that point.
[85]
[86]
In 1979, the country suffered major widespread strikes known as the
Winter of Discontent
. All these factors were seen by academics, economists and politicians as symbolising Britain's postwar decline. Lastly, the
Handover of Hong Kong
to
China
was seen by experts as the definitive end of the British Empire.
Nevertheless, the United Kingdom today has retained global
soft power
in the 21st century, including a formidable military. The United Kingdom continues to have a permanent seat on the
UN Security Council
alongside only four other powers, and is one of the nine nuclear powers. Its capital city,
London
, continues to be regarded as one of the pre-eminent cities in the world, being ranked as a
global city
by the Mori Foundation.
[87]
In 2022, the United Kingdom was ranked the foremost European country in terms of soft power by Brand Finance.
[88]
However, it has been assumed by economists that more recent economic difficulties since the 2010s exacerbated by
Brexit
, a
cost-of-living crisis
,
political instabilities
and
industrial disputes and strikes
may have caused further permanent damage and erosion to Britain's lingering power.
[89]
United States
[
edit
]
In
After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order
[90]
(2001), French sociologist Emmanuel Todd predicts the eventual decline and fall of the United States as a superpower. "After years of being perceived as a problem-solver, the US itself has now become a problem for the rest of the world." Since the 2010s, as a result of
asymmetric polarization
within the United States, as well as globally perceived
U.S. foreign policy
failures, and China's growing influence around the world, some academics and geopolitical experts have argued that the United States may already be experiencing a decay in its
soft power
around the world.
[91]
Superpower disengagement
[
edit
]
Superpower disengagement is a
foreign policy
option whereby the most powerful nations, the superpowers, reduce their interventions in an area. Such disengagement could be multilateral among superpowers or lesser powers, or bilateral between two superpowers, or unilateral. It could mean an end to either direct or indirect interventions. For instance, disengagement could mean that the superpowers remove their support of proxies in
proxy wars
in order to de-escalate a superpower conflict back to a local problem based on local disputes. Disengagement can create buffers between superpowers that might prevent conflicts or reduce the intensity of conflicts.
[
citation needed
]
The term usually refers to various policy proposals during the
Cold War
which attempted to defuse tensions between the
Soviet Union
and the
United States
, largely because of the risk of any superpower conflict to escalate to
nuclear war
. Examples of one-sided disengagement include when
Joseph Stalin
decided to end Soviet support for the communist
guerrillas
in
Greece
during the
Greek Civil War
, and when
Richard Nixon
withdrew US troops from Vietnam in the early 1970s.
[
citation needed
]
The more important candidates for disengagement were where Soviet and US forces faced each other directly such as in
Germany
and
Austria
. The
Austrian State Treaty
is an example of formal,
multilateral
, superpower disengagement which left Austria as neutral for the duration of the Cold War, with Austria staying out of the
Warsaw Pact
,
NATO
, and the
European Economic Community
. The 1952
Stalin Note
is perhaps the most controversial proposal of superpower disengagement from Germany.
[93]
[94]
Potential superpowers
[
edit
]
The term potential superpowers has been applied by scholars and other qualified commentators to the possibility of several political entities achieving superpower status in the 21st century. Due to their large markets, growing military strength, economic potential, and influence in international affairs,
China
,
[95]
[96]
[97]
the
European Union
,
[2]
India
,
[98]
and
Russia
[99]
are among the political entities most cited as having the potential of achieving superpower status in the 21st century. In 2020, a new
UBS
survey found that 57% of global investors predicted that China would replace the U.S. as the world's biggest superpower by 2030.
[100]
However, many historians, writers, and critics have expressed doubts whether China or India would ever emerge as a new superpower.
[101]
[102]
Some political scientists and other commentators have even suggested that such countries might simply be
emerging powers
, as opposed to potential superpowers.
[103]
The European Union has been called a "regulatory superpower" due to the
Brussels effect
.
[104]
[105]
[106]
The record of such predictions has not been perfect. For example, in the 1980s, some commentators thought
Japan
would become a superpower due to its large GDP and high economic growth at the time.
[107]
However,
Japan's economy crashed in 1991
, creating a long period of economic slump in the country which has become known as the
Lost Decades
.
Increasing doubts have emerged around the potential of Russia to gain superpower status given its declining economy, severe military underperformance during the
invasion of Ukraine
, and its loss of influence in
Central Asia
, a region once dominated by Moscow for centuries.
[108]
[109]
[110]
See also
[
edit
]
Notes
[
edit
]
References
[
edit
]
- ^
Munro, Andre.
"superpower"
.
Encyclopedia Britannica
. Retrieved
2 May
2023
.
- ^
a
b
Leonard, Mark (18 February 2005).
"Europe: the new superpower"
.
Irish Times
. Archived from
the original
on 27 March 2009
. Retrieved
31 May
2015
.
- ^
McCormick, John
(2007).
The European Superpower
.
Palgrave Macmillan
.
- ^
Munro, Andre.
"superpower (Political Science)"
.
britannica
. Retrieved
13 April
2022
.
- ^
Hall, H. Duncan (October 1944).
"The Super-Powers; The United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union?Their Responsibility for Peace. By William T. R. Fox. (New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company. 1944. Pp. 162. $2.00.)"
.
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.
38
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:
10.2307/1949612
.
JSTOR
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.
- ^
Bremer, Ian (May 28, 2015).
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.
Time
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- ^
a
b
c
d
Nossal, Kim Richard.
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.
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- ^
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.
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.
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.
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.
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.
- ^
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.
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.
- ^
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.
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.
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.
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.
- ^
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.
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.
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. Retrieved
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.
- ^
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(1987) written by Paul Kennedy
- ^
a
b
Dellios, Rosita.
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(PDF)
.
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. Retrieved
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.
- ^
Maddison, Angus (2001).
The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective
. Paris:
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. pp. 98, 242.
- ^
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"www.stanford.edu"
. stanford.edu. Archived from
the original
on 2014-05-11
. Retrieved
2010-08-27
.
- ^
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. 8 December 2008. Archived from
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