Elections in Guinea are both a lesson in patience and a time of acute tension, with the constant threat of widespread violence erupting. In 2010, for the first "free, democratic" poll in the country's history, voters had to wait more than four months between the two rounds of voting in the presidential election. Then, Alpha Conde , a longstanding opposition leader, gained a narrow majority over the former prime minister, Cellou Dalein Diallo , despite the latter's substantial first-round lead.

This time, it took almost three weeks for the independent national electoral commission to announce the results of the long-awaited general election. It had been postponed several times during the previous three years, neither side trusting the other enough to risk a poll. The Rally of the Guinean People (RPG), loyal to Conde, took 53 seats out of 114 in the national assembly, enough to obtain a working majority with support from smaller parties.

Despite this triumph, the president, as well as the opposition, has also alleged fraud. "Each time there's an election the result is disputed, but there was a lot of fraud to our disadvantage in [the capital] Conakry. The judges on the supreme court will see who committed fraud, and who did not," President Conde told Le Monde the day before the official results were posted on 18 October.

Most of Guinea's political leaders feel they have been duped by the largely discredited electoral commission. "We were flagrantly robbed. The opposition represents a substantial majority and those in power should not have polled more than 20% of the votes," says Sidya Toure , opposition spokesperson and head of the Union of Republican Forces. Diallo, whose Union of Guinean Democratic Forces now has 37 MPs, takes a more moderate line. Conde is keen to sideline him, as the leader of the country's Fula community, but Diallo intends to lodge a complaint with the supreme court. He has appealed to his supporters to remain mobilised, but not to demonstrate. But observers fear that opposition parties may take to the streets to trigger a third round of voting. "A call to demonstrate would be disastrous. The poll was marked by various irregularities, in particular an unprecedented turnout in several government strongholds, but it was nevertheless a step forward. The opposition has gained ground," says a source involved in the electoral process.

In an effort to prevent this ? a frequent occurrence here in the past ? the regional UN representative and several ambassadors ? from the US, EU, France and several west African countries ? have held meetings with opposition parties. Ten days after the poll foreign representatives publicly condemned the "shortcomings and irregularities [which could] undermine the credibility of certain results", but they have worked to convince the opposition to seek legal means of redress.

Whether the situation in Guinea remains calm hangs on the supreme court's decision, according to a western diplomat speaking anonymously: "If the judges don't make matters worse by increasing the RPG lead, the main opposition parties may decide to make do with these results and wait till the presidential election in 2015."

In that poll, ethnic rivalries are likely to play a big role, with the Mandinka people largely loyal to Conde, the Fula backing Diallo and the Susus supporting Toure. Efforts to capitalise on Guinea's vast mineral and agricultural riches will have to wait a little longer.

This article appeared in Guardian Weekly , which incorporates material from Le Monde