In Pakistan's generally turbulent politics, a fresh storm is brewing on the quiet. One that threatens to bring in a tremendous churn, which could see the re-emergence of Benazir Bhutto, the eclipse of President Ghulam Ishaq Khan, and a new status for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Besides it could also change the equations among Pakistan, India and the US.

For at least two decades the taciturn, inscrutable President Ishaq Khan has been a major player on Pakistan's political firmament, surviving the rise and fall of several regimes essentially because of his hold on the Pakistani establishment - the all-powerful army and bureaucracy.

But in a remarkable change of fortunes, unthinkable even two months ago, the openly anti-Indian, pro-Jamaat President's position is rapidly weakening. The US, the army and, more subtly, Sharif are working at undermining him.

And with a confrontation in the offing by March, many are prepared to write Ishaq Khan's political epitaph.

The Pathan President is in trouble because the Americans are unhappy about his insistence on continuing with Pakistan's nuclear programme. They also feel that he is the stumbling block in a rapprochement between the Sharif Government and the Opposition. And according to PPP leader Iftikar Gillani, when on December 30 three senior PPP leaders led by Benazir Bhutto called on Elizabeth Jones, the number two US diplomat, Jones indicated the US's unhappiness with Ishaq Khan.

A reason for this is the President's blunt ways. General Joseph Hoar, CENTCOM chief, and Reginald Bartholomew, US under-secretary of state, recently called on Ishaq Khan and gave him a dressing down on the nuclear non-proliferation treaty issue, now central to US global policy. Ishaq Khan insisted Pakistan would not trade its security for foreign assistance.

Undermining Ishaq Khan further is the powerful defence establishment. It does not want any friction with the US over the nuclear issue. As it is, the cut in US military aid has led to the grounding of F-16s and some other defence equipment for want of spares. And the result is Pakistan's defence capability is eroding.

The pro-West, anti-mullah Army Chief General Asif Nawaz Janjua is at cross-purposes with the President. Within five months of assuming office, he is on a visit to the US where his escort is none other than General Hoar. Interestingly, neither Ishaq Khan nor Sharif has received invitations to the US.

Alarmingly for Ishaq Khan, the army chief is opening up lines to the PPP, saying that consensual politics is necessary, especially in ethnically torn Sindh, where PPP workers are being bought or battered into submission.

He also made it clear that the use of force- masterminded by Sindh Chief Minister Jam Sadiq Ali and his home adviser, Irfanullah Marwat- also the President's son-in-law-will not work. Incidentally, both the army and Sharif want Sadiq Ali replaced.

Illustrative of the change is the dinner given in Islamabad last December by a minor politician, Sardar Asif, for the army chief. Benazir was invited, and seated between the army chief and Lt-General Imranullah Khan (retd), a pro-US officer.

Janjua arid Benazir chatted amiably all evening. Then just before he left for the US, the chief again called on Benazir, and she took the unprecedented step of issuing a state-ment asking the US to ensure he did not return empty-handed.

Janjua has also been showing who is the boss in the army. He packed off Lt-General Hamid Gul from Multan, where he was commander of Pakistan's key strike corps, to the Taxila ordnance factories - a demotion to a major-general's post.

This is a telling move considering Gul is close to Ishaq Khan and was head of the dreaded ISI when the PPP government was sacked.

Sections of the bureaucracy too seem to be lining up against the President. When the PPP decided to boycott the December 19 joint session of Parliament -which was to prove so embarrassing for the President - a senior PPP leader received a call on December 14 from a top bureaucrat urging the party to rethink its position, for it would be betraying the people's mandate not to question him.

The PPP decided to participate. As things turned out, when the Opposition created a furore over the Veena Hayat gang-rape during the presidential address, hot one member of the majority Islamic Jamhoori Ittehad protested. Also silently witnessing the chaos were the service chiefs and members of the diplomatic corps.

Enjoying Ishaq Khan's discomfiture is Sharif. For too long the President was in control of the Government, leaving Sharif virtually powerless.

At the time Sharif was embroiled in a succession of financial scandals, while the President made highly-publicised visits to Iran and Saudi Arabia. When Bartholomew and Hoar came visiting, the prime minister was not even in the picture. Now he is. Government officials close to Sharif try to play down the conflict.

Says Hussain Haqqani, press adviser to the prime minister: "Till the PPP has 30 to 3 5 per cent of the vote, the establishment will remain intact. However, there is bound to be a power-play within the ruling troika." But the cleavage is clearly much more serious than that.

While the President has been the architect of the anti-PPP campaign, Sharif has, especially in the recent past, been seeking more active cooperation with the Opposition.

On January 5, he gave the Sindh administration a severe dressing down for the law and order problem, singling out the Marwat-controlled Crime Investigation Agency for censure. Sharif has also been seeking a meeting with Benazir.

But the prime minister too is cleft on a dilemma. The declining sway of Ishaq Khan may well give a fillip to the consensus efforts of the Americans, the army and Sharif which are aimed at preserving Pakistan's democracy. Yet it would also lead to a resurgent PPP storming back to power.

A scenario not so inconceivable if the US continues to call the shots and the brewing trouble leads to fresh elections. As the President loses ground, the American view is bound to prevail, and what the US wants today is a reversal of Pakistan's Afghanistan, nuclear, and India policies.

Change is definitely in the air, its surest indicator being a majority prime minister seeking rapprochement with the leader of the Opposition. And by the look of things, the ultimate winner will be Benazir Bhutto supported by the pro-US General Janjua