If the 2023 upfronts were about disruption, the 2024 upfronts are about Disruption with a capital “D.”

Last year’s events were quite literally disrupted, with striking WGA writers on picket lines outside the New York City venues and the annual presentations to advertisers blunted by a noted lack of star power, as actors proved unwilling to cross those picket lines. While companies like Disney and NBCUniversal tried to make up for it by leaning on their news and sports talent, it was nonetheless a muted week.

This year, the disruption is more figurative, but in many ways much worse: Linear TV, the linchpin of the ad business for Hollywood, is rapidly eroding. At the same time, this is the year that the streaming behemoths have decided to go for the ad jugular, with Netflix planning an “immersive” experience for media buyers and Amazon storming into upfronts only months after turning on commercials for its millions of Prime Video users, both of them joining YouTube during this critical week in New York.

In other words, linear TV is on the ropes at a time when legacy media needs it most to get over that streaming chasm. “We’re not kidding ourselves thinking this is going to be some gangbusters upfront. It’s going to be challenging again,” one ad sales chief with exposure to linear TV tells The Hollywood Reporter . Another TV ad sales chief adds that they were focused on “flexibility” and “transparency” with ad partners, basically asking them what they wanted and figuring out a way to deliver.

But some analysts have been even more bearish. “Decades from now, media executives and investors will likely look back at 2023 as the year where linear TV advertising officially broke,” MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson wrote March 19. “It is now clear that outside of sports advertising there should no longer be expectations of a recovery for linear TV advertising.”

Indeed, multiple top ad sales executives say that sports will be one of the top selling points during an otherwise challenging year, with athletes and studio hosts expected on stage at multiple presentations.

But about those sports ads: A senior executive on the buyer side of the upfronts says that they think live sports could end up being north of 40 percent of this year’s upfront spend, thanks to strong demand. But there is also an asterisk. “What we’re evaluating really closely is whether or not the traditional media companies that also have sports are trying to raise prices so much in sports in order to offset the decline in entertainment,” this exec says. 

Indeed, the decline in entertainment programming is the hole in linear TV’s sinking ship. “I don’t think the networks are making as much of an effort and putting quality content on these linear channels, as they had say 5-10 years ago,” says media consultant Brad Adgate. “If they didn’t have this legacy of decades behind them as an advertising platform — if this was something brand new — I think they would get very little advertiser support. It’s called legacy media for a reason.”

“We’ve seen it in the Nielsen ratings, but it’s not unexpected,” the buy-side source adds. “It’s been going on for years now, and there aren’t any media companies that are trying to change that trend. They’re not investing in traditional primetime entertainment.”

Streaming, however, is. But while the traditional entertainment companies lose collective billions on their direct-to-consumer platforms, the tech giants and the only truly profitable streaming platform — Netflix — are coming for their lunch.

“It’s not surprising to me that they’re doing this, I mean, look, they’re sitting there and they’re seeing $20 billion being transacted and they have better content and a better story to tell in often cases to the advertising community,” Adgate says. “Why shouldn’t you be there?”

One year after hosting a (strike-induced) virtual upfront, Netflix is planning a massive “immersive” experience in the Chelsea Piers complex, with co-CEO Ted Sarandos promising on the company’s last earnings call “a lot of entertainment in store” for the upfront event.

And for the first time, Amazon is pushing into upfront week, hoping to leverage the Prime Video audience (now ad-supported) to steal market share from linear.

And then there’s YouTube. The video platform is already a behemoth (it had more than $31 billion in advertising revenue last year), but it wants a bigger piece of the upfront pie. It has secured the closing night spot during upfront week, where executives will gladly tout its reach on living room TV sets by noting it has more viewing time than Netflix. Multiple media buyers quizzed by THR after last year’s strike-impacted upfronts cited YouTube as having the most successful presentation, in which it leaned on its top creators and a surprise appearance from NFL commissioner Roger Goodell.

But the traditional players will roar back, with a ton of star power expected, multiple executives say, which means that media buyers seeking selfies at the afterparties may get their chance this year. Whether that will be enough to pry away the digital encroachers remains to be seen. “The launch and growth of new ad-supported tiers at Amazon Prime Video, Netflix and Disney+ should pull an even greater share of dollars away from linear TV,” Nathanson argues, adding that services like Fox’s Tubi or Paramount’s Pluto are also at risk. “These new entrants may also, however, pull dollars away from what have been, to date, among the largest beneficiaries of the outflow of dollars from linear: legacy AVOD services and FAST channels.”

Or, as a top television executive worries: “There’s too much supply and not enough demand.” 

And on the horizon, deeper concerns persist.

As scary as the ad market is now, it could always get worse. Further war in the Middle East or Europe? Disruptions during the 2024 election? More surprise interest rate hikes? Any of those things could cause further advertiser pullback, given their propensity for caution.

“I never thought I’d be in a job where I was so connected to Jerome Powell,” quips the buy-side executive.

Upfronts Schedule: A Cheat Sheet

Fox Corp.
May 13, Manhattan Center

Key IP The NFL, MLB, Fox News, Tubi, Gordon Ramsay
What to expect Touting of Tom Brady, who is set to join the Fox NFL booth; the growth of Tubi; more unscripted and scripted fare.

NBCUniversal
May 13, Radio City Music Hall

Key IP Paris Olympics, the NFL, The Tonight Show , Dick Wolf
What to expect Plenty of sports, touting the NBCU News Group, and some Peacock promotion.

Telemundo
May 13, The Shed

Key IP Soccer, NFL, its slate of telenovelas
What to expect A party with performances by SNL ’s Marcello Hernández and music star Manuel Turizo.

Amazon/Prime Video
May 14, Pier 36

Key IP The NFL, Fallout , Reacher
What to expect Boasting about Prime Video’s advertising scale and reach, live sports rights, and deals with the likes of MrBeast and Travis Kelce.

Disney
May 14, Javits Center North

Key IP Marvel, ESPN, Abbott Elementary , Grey’s Anatomy
What to expect A cavalcade of high-profile talent (including, fingers crossed, the return of Jimmy Kimmel); sneak peeks at upcoming studio, TV and streaming projects; an afterparty overlooking the Hudson River.

TelevisaUnivision
May 14, HK Hall

Key IP Its slate of telenovelas, Liga MX, its Vix streaming service
What to expect A “Casa Cultura,” with food from across Latin America and live music.

Warner Bros. Discovery
May 15, The Theater at Madison Square Garden

Key IP HBO hits like the Game of Thrones universe and The Last of Us , CNN, TNT Sports, Cartoon Network
What to expect Previews of HBO and Max series, appearances by CNN and TNT Sports talent.

YouTube
May 15, David Geffen Hall at Lincoln Center

Key IP NFL Sunday Ticket , the platform’s vast lineup of creators
What to expect Creators touting their success and reach on YouTube, a surprise musical performance or two (last year, Doja Cat performed).

Netflix
May 16, Pier59 Studios

Key IP Bridgerton , Squid Game , WWE, Baby Reindeer
What to expect Clips from new seasons of Bridgerton and Squid Game , an “experiential” environment, perhaps teasing the upcoming Netflix Houses that are planned worldwide.

A version of this story first appeared in the May 8 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine.  Click here to subscribe.