The US elections of 2024

Our coverage of the race for the White House

Our poll tracker and forecast model

Donald Trump has a two in three chance of winning the election

Our new forecast model finds Mr Trump has a small but clear lead over Joe Biden

Trump v Biden: who’s ahead in the polls?

The Economist is tracking the race to be America’s next president


Latest coverage

Donald Trump has finally got it right about the January 6th insurrectionists

They were “warriors”?that’s the problem

Are America’s leading presidential candidates up to it?

Americans are worryingly unconfident in the sanity of the two men


Republicans are favoured to win the Senate. What would they do?

Congressional Republicans are already considering the art of the possible


How America’s presidential debates are changing this year

Will the Trump-Biden showdowns be an institution’s last gasp, or a new start?

Joe Biden’s best chance to shake up the race

But in debating Donald Trump, he faces graver public doubts and a greater challenge than he did in 2020

Might Wisconsin’s redrawn state-legislative districts help Biden win?

Democrats hope newly competitive local contests will boost turnout in the swing state

A second Trump term: from unthinkable to probable



Republicans

What Donald Trump’s 34 convictions mean for the presidential election

Come election season, it could be Hunter Biden’s trial that hogs the headlines

What Republicans make of Donald Trump’s conviction

The party is never as unified as when its members are defending the former president


What are America’s Libertarians for?

They are grappling with whether to go for national influence or local wins


A mano-a-mano contest between Michael Cohen and Donald Trump

The hush-money trial hinges on the testimony of the former president’s former fixer



Democrats

Joe Biden, master oil trader

The president has turned volatility into profit

Biden outdoes Trump with ultra-high China tariffs

The move, which hits electric vehicles, carries an environmental cost


America’s fiscal outlook is disastrous, but forgotten

On the campaign trail, both main candidates largely ignore the problem


Escalating protests expose three fault lines on American campuses

Universities struggle with how to regulate free speech and other rules



Lexington

Politics is the law in Texas

A governor’s pardon implies that courts cannot be trusted, just as Donald Trump says

Why the Republicans will convene in a forge of American socialism

Donald Trump has made gains with Wisconsin’s working class, but Joe Biden could still win there


Joe Biden is practising some Clintonian politics

But he needs to do more than crack down on “junk fees” to woo swing voters


Truth Social is a mind-bending win for Donald Trump

And disturbing evidence of how he destabilises reality for Americans

Are American progressives making themselves sad?

Conservatives seem more excited about change

Donald Trump’s tremendous love

His politics may seem hostile, yet he talks like a Valentine’s Day card



What’s at stake

America’s billionaires should resist the urge to support Donald Trump

A Trump victory would reward them. But not enough to justify the risks


Rural white voters in Wisconsin could decide America’s election

They are less enthusiastic about Donald Trump than their counterparts elsewhere


Fewer migrants are crossing America’s southern border

Joe Biden has Mexico to thank?for now