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Comparative Political Studies

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Abstract

This article systematically assesses whether open political competition ends the coup trap. We use an original data set of coup reports, electoral competition, and socioeconomic data spanning the 20th century in 18 Latin American countries. Our models, which are robust to multiple-comparison tests, generate support for a central claim: While recent experience with military coups increases the risk of incumbents being overthrown, the establishment of open political competition ends cycles of political instability. The risk of being overthrown consequently declines with time for presidents in noncompetitive systems, but remains stable?and, on average, substantially lower?in competitive polities. Coups do not vary with levels of development or of inequality, economic growth rates, or the legislative powers of the presidency.

Keywords

Latin America , military coups , coup trap , multiple comparisons

References

	Abdi, H. ( 2007 ). The Bonferonni and ?idakcorrections for multiple comparisons . In Salkind, N. (Ed.), Encyclopedia of measurement and statistics (pp. 103 - 107 ). Thousand Oaks, CA : Sage . Google Scholar
	Allison, P. D. ( 2009 ). Fixed effects regression models. Los Angeles, CA : Sage . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Banks, A. ( 2004 ). Cross-national time-series data (CNTS) [cited 2005]. Available from www.databanks.sitehosting.net/index.htm Google Scholar
	Bates, R. H. ( 2008 ).When things fell apart: State failure in late-century Africa. New York, NY : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Belkin, A., Schofer, E. ( 2003 ). Toward a structural understanding of coup risk . Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47, 594 - 620 . Google Scholar \| SAGE Journals \| ISI
	Berges, A. V., Gerald, F., Thorp, R. ( 2007 ). Oxford Latin American economic history database . Latin American Centre. Oxford University . Retrieved from http://www.lac.ox.ac.uk/moxlad-database Google Scholar
	Boix, C. ( 2003 ). Democracy and redistribution. New York, NY : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Box-Steffensmeier, J., Jones, B. S. ( 2004 ). Event history modeling: A guide for social scientists. New York, NY : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Brambor, T., Clark, W. R., Golder, M. ( 2006 ). Understanding interaction models: Improving empirical analyses . Political Analysis, 14(1), 63 - 82 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Brinks, D., Coppedge, M. ( 2006 ). Diffusion is no illusion: Neighbor emulation in the third wave of democracy . Comparative Political Studies, 39, 463 - 489 . Google Scholar \| SAGE Journals \| ISI
	Cabral, H. J. ( 2008 ). Multiple comparisons procedures . Circulation, 117, 698 - 701 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| Medline \| ISI
	Collier, P. ( 2007 ). The bottom billion: Why the poorest countries are failing and what can be done about it. Oxford, UK : Oxford University Press . Google Scholar
	Collier, P., Hoeffler, A. ( 2005 ). Coup traps: why does Africa have so many coups d’etat? Unpublished manuscript, Centre for the Study of African Economies, Department of Economics, University of Oxford , Wellington square, UK . Google Scholar
	Drake, P. W. ( 2009 ). Between tyranny and anarchy: A history of democracy in Latin America, 1800-2006. Stanford, CA : Stanford University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Doorenspleet, R. ( 2000 ). Reassessing the three waves of democratization . World Politics, 52, 384 - 406 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Esarey, J., Lawrence, J. ( 2012 ). Testing interaction hypotheses: Determining and controlling the false positive rate. Unpublished manuscript, The Society for Political Methodology [cited October 2012]. Retrieved from http://polmeth.wustl.edu/mediaDetail.php?docId=1340 Google Scholar
	Finer, S. E. ( 1988 ). The man on horseback: The role of the military in politics. Boulder, CO : Westview Press . Google Scholar
	Gandhi, J. ( 2008 ). Political institutions under dictatorship. New York, NY : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Heston, A., Summers, R., Aten, B. ( 2006 ). Penn world table version 6.2: Center for international comparisons of production, income and prices at the University of Pennsylvania. Available from http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/ Google Scholar
	Hiroi, T., Omori, S. ( 2013 ). Causes and triggers of coups d’etat: An event history analysis . Politics and Policy, 41(1), 39 - 64 . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Hochstetler, K. ( 2006 ). Rethinking presidentialism: Challenges and presidential falls in South America . Comparative Politics, 38, 401 - 418 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Houle, C. ( 2009 ). Inequality and democracy: Why inequality harms consolidation but does not affect democratization . World Politics, 61, 589 - 622 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Huneeus, C. ( 2006 ). The Pinochet regime. Boulder, Co : Lynne Rienner . Google Scholar
	Huntington, S. ( 1968 ). Political order in changing societies. New Haven, CT : Yale University Press . Google Scholar
	Huntington, S. P. ( 1991 ). The third wave. Norman, OK : University of Oklahoma Press . Google Scholar
	Jackman, R. W. ( 1978 ). The predictability of coups d’etat: A model with African data . American Political Science Review, 72, 1262 - 1275 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Johnson, T. H., Slater, R. O., McGowan, P. ( 1984 ). Explaining African military coups d’etat, 1960-1982 . American political Science Review, 78, 622 - 640 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Karl, T. L. ( 1987 ). Petroleum and political pacts: The transition to democracy in Venezuela . Latin American Research Review, 22(1), 63 - 94 . Google Scholar \| ISI
	Kenney, C. ( 2004 ). Fujimori’s coup and the breakdown of democracy in Latin America. Notre Dame, IN : University of Notre Dame Press . Google Scholar
	Krasner, S. ( 1984 ). Approaches to the state: Alternative conceptions and historical dynamics . Comparative Politics, 16, 223 - 246 . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Lehoucq, F. ( 2011 ). The third and fourth waves of democracy . In Haynes, J. (Ed.), Routledge handbook of democratization (pp. 273 - 286 ). London, England : Routledge . Google Scholar
	Lehoucq, F. ( 2013 ). At the risk of being overthrown: Military coups in twentieth century Latin America. Unpublished manuscript. Google Scholar
	Li, R. P. Y., Thompson, W. R. ( 1975 ). The coup contagion hypothesis . Journal of Conflict Resolution, 19(1), 63 - 84 . Google Scholar \| SAGE Journals \| ISI
	Lieuwen, E. ( 1960 ). Arms and politics in Latin America. New York, NY : Praeger . Google Scholar
	Londregan, J. B., Poole, K. T. ( 1990 ). Poverty, the coup trap, and the seizure of executive power . World Politics, 42, 151 - 183 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Luttwak, E. ( 1979 ). Coup d’etat: A practical handbook. Cambridge, MA : Harvard University Press . Google Scholar
	Maddison, A. ( 2003 ). The world economy: Historical statistics. Paris, France : Development Centre of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Mainwaring, S., Perez-Linan, A. ( 2005 ). Latin American democratization since 1978: Regime transitions, breakdowns, and erosions . In Hagopian, F., Mainwaring, S. (Eds.), The third wave of democratization in Latin America: Advances and setbacks (pp. 14 - 59 ). New York, NY : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Mainwaring, S., Perez-Linan, A. ( 2007 ). Why Regions of the World Are Important: Regional Specificities and Region-Wide Diffusion of Democracy . In Munck, G. (Ed) Regimes and Democracy in Latin America:Theories and Methods (pp. 199 - 229 ). Oxford, UK : Oxford University Press . Google Scholar
	Mainwaring, S., Perez-Linan, A. ( 2013 ). The Emergence and Fall of Democracies and Dictatorships: Latin America since 1900. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	McCleary, R. ( 1999 ). Dictating democracy: Guatemala and the end of violent revolution. Gainesville, FL : University Press of Florida . Google Scholar
	Needler, M. C. ( 1966 ). Political development and military intervention in Latin America . American political Science Review, 60, 616 - 626 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Negretto, G. L. ( 2006 ). Minority presidents and democratic performance in Latin America . Latin American Politics & Society, 48, 63 - 92 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Negretto, G. L. ( 2009 ). Political parties and institutional design: Explaining constitutional choice in Latin America . British Journal of Political Science, 39(1), 117 - 139 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Nickson, A. ( 1989 ). The overthrow of the Stroessner regime: Re-establishing the status quo . Bulletin of Latin American Research, 8, 185 - 209 . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Nun, J. ( 1967 ). The middle-class military coup . In Veliz, C. (Ed.), The politics of conformity in Latin America (pp 66 - 118 ). Oxford, England : Oxford University Press . Google Scholar
	Nunn, F. M. ( 1970 ). Chilean politics 1920-1931: The honorable mission of the armed forces. Albuquerque, NM : University of New Mexico Press . Google Scholar
	O’Donnell, G. A. ( 1973 ). Modernization and bureaucratic-authoritarianism: Studies in South American politics. Berkeley : Institute of International Studies, University of California . Google Scholar
	O’Kane, R. H. T. ( 1981 ). A probabilistic approach to the causes of coups d’etat . British Journal of Political Science, 11, 287 - 308 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Przeworski, A. ( 2009 ). The mechanics of regime instability in Latin America . Journal of Politics in Latin America, 1(1), 5 - 36 . Google Scholar \| SAGE Journals
	Przeworski, A., Alvarez, M. E., Cheibub, J. A., Limongi, F. ( 2000 ). Democracy and development: Political institutions and well-being in the world, 1950-1990. New York, NY : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Putnam, R. D. ( 1967 ). Explaining military intervention in Latin American politics . World Politics, 20(1), 83 - 110 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Remmer, K. L. ( 1996 ). The sustainability of political democracy: Lessons from South America . Comparative Political Studies, 29, 611 - 634 . Google Scholar \| SAGE Journals \| ISI
	Remmer, K. L. ( 1999 ). Regime sustainability in the Latin Caribbean, 1944-1994 . Journal of Developing Areas, 33(3), 331 - 354 . Google Scholar
	Ruhl, J. M. ( 1982 ). Social mobilization, military tradition and current patterns of civil-military relations in Latin America: Testing Putnam’s major conclusions . The Western Political Quarterly, 35, 574 - 586 . Google Scholar \| SAGE Journals
	Rustow, D. A. ( 1970 ). Transitions to democracy: Toward a dynamic model . Comparative Politics, 2, 337 - 363 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	?idak, Z. ( 1967 ). Rectangular confidence regions for the means of multivariate normal distributions . Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62, 626 - 633 . Google Scholar \| ISI
	Shugart, M. S., Carey, J. M. ( 1992 ). Presidents and assemblies: Constitutional design and electoral dynamics. New York, NY : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Smith, P. H. ( 2005 ). Democracy in Latin America. New York, NY : Oxford University Press . Google Scholar
	Svolik, M. ( 2008 ). Authoritarian reversals and democratic consolidation . American political Science Review, 102, 153 - 168 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Taylor, P. B. ( 1952 ). The Uruguayan coup d’etat of 1933 . Hispanic American Historical Review, 32, 301 - 320 . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Thompson, W. R. ( 1973 ). The grievances of military coup-makers. Beverly Hills, CA : Sage . Google Scholar
	Valenzuela, A. ( 1978 ). The breakdown of democratic regimes: Chile. Baltimore, MD : Johns Hopkins University Press . Google Scholar
	Vanhanen, T. ( 1997 ).Prospects of democracy: A study of 172 countries. New York, NY : Routledge . Google Scholar
	Winship, C., Mare, R. D. ( 1992 ). Models for sample selection bias . Annual Review of Sociology, 18, 327 - 350 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI

Jun	JUL	Jan
	04
2020	2021	2022

	Abdi, H. ( 2007 ). The Bonferonni and ?idakcorrections for multiple comparisons . In Salkind, N. (Ed.), Encyclopedia of measurement and statistics (pp. 103 - 107 ). Thousand Oaks, CA : Sage . Google Scholar
	Allison, P. D. ( 2009 ). Fixed effects regression models. Los Angeles, CA : Sage . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Banks, A. ( 2004 ). Cross-national time-series data (CNTS) [cited 2005]. Available from www.databanks.sitehosting.net/index.htm Google Scholar
	Bates, R. H. ( 2008 ).When things fell apart: State failure in late-century Africa. New York, NY : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Belkin, A., Schofer, E. ( 2003 ). Toward a structural understanding of coup risk . Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47, 594 - 620 . Google Scholar \| SAGE Journals \| ISI
	Berges, A. V., Gerald, F., Thorp, R. ( 2007 ). Oxford Latin American economic history database . Latin American Centre. Oxford University . Retrieved from http://www.lac.ox.ac.uk/moxlad-database Google Scholar
	Boix, C. ( 2003 ). Democracy and redistribution. New York, NY : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Box-Steffensmeier, J., Jones, B. S. ( 2004 ). Event history modeling: A guide for social scientists. New York, NY : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Brambor, T., Clark, W. R., Golder, M. ( 2006 ). Understanding interaction models: Improving empirical analyses . Political Analysis, 14(1), 63 - 82 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Brinks, D., Coppedge, M. ( 2006 ). Diffusion is no illusion: Neighbor emulation in the third wave of democracy . Comparative Political Studies, 39, 463 - 489 . Google Scholar \| SAGE Journals \| ISI
	Cabral, H. J. ( 2008 ). Multiple comparisons procedures . Circulation, 117, 698 - 701 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| Medline \| ISI
	Collier, P. ( 2007 ). The bottom billion: Why the poorest countries are failing and what can be done about it. Oxford, UK : Oxford University Press . Google Scholar
	Collier, P., Hoeffler, A. ( 2005 ). Coup traps: why does Africa have so many coups d’etat? Unpublished manuscript, Centre for the Study of African Economies, Department of Economics, University of Oxford , Wellington square, UK . Google Scholar
	Drake, P. W. ( 2009 ). Between tyranny and anarchy: A history of democracy in Latin America, 1800-2006. Stanford, CA : Stanford University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Doorenspleet, R. ( 2000 ). Reassessing the three waves of democratization . World Politics, 52, 384 - 406 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Esarey, J., Lawrence, J. ( 2012 ). Testing interaction hypotheses: Determining and controlling the false positive rate. Unpublished manuscript, The Society for Political Methodology [cited October 2012]. Retrieved from http://polmeth.wustl.edu/mediaDetail.php?docId=1340 Google Scholar
	Finer, S. E. ( 1988 ). The man on horseback: The role of the military in politics. Boulder, CO : Westview Press . Google Scholar
	Gandhi, J. ( 2008 ). Political institutions under dictatorship. New York, NY : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Heston, A., Summers, R., Aten, B. ( 2006 ). Penn world table version 6.2: Center for international comparisons of production, income and prices at the University of Pennsylvania. Available from http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/ Google Scholar
	Hiroi, T., Omori, S. ( 2013 ). Causes and triggers of coups d’etat: An event history analysis . Politics and Policy, 41(1), 39 - 64 . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Hochstetler, K. ( 2006 ). Rethinking presidentialism: Challenges and presidential falls in South America . Comparative Politics, 38, 401 - 418 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Houle, C. ( 2009 ). Inequality and democracy: Why inequality harms consolidation but does not affect democratization . World Politics, 61, 589 - 622 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Huneeus, C. ( 2006 ). The Pinochet regime. Boulder, Co : Lynne Rienner . Google Scholar
	Huntington, S. ( 1968 ). Political order in changing societies. New Haven, CT : Yale University Press . Google Scholar
	Huntington, S. P. ( 1991 ). The third wave. Norman, OK : University of Oklahoma Press . Google Scholar
	Jackman, R. W. ( 1978 ). The predictability of coups d’etat: A model with African data . American Political Science Review, 72, 1262 - 1275 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Johnson, T. H., Slater, R. O., McGowan, P. ( 1984 ). Explaining African military coups d’etat, 1960-1982 . American political Science Review, 78, 622 - 640 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Karl, T. L. ( 1987 ). Petroleum and political pacts: The transition to democracy in Venezuela . Latin American Research Review, 22(1), 63 - 94 . Google Scholar \| ISI
	Kenney, C. ( 2004 ). Fujimori’s coup and the breakdown of democracy in Latin America. Notre Dame, IN : University of Notre Dame Press . Google Scholar
	Krasner, S. ( 1984 ). Approaches to the state: Alternative conceptions and historical dynamics . Comparative Politics, 16, 223 - 246 . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Lehoucq, F. ( 2011 ). The third and fourth waves of democracy . In Haynes, J. (Ed.), Routledge handbook of democratization (pp. 273 - 286 ). London, England : Routledge . Google Scholar
	Lehoucq, F. ( 2013 ). At the risk of being overthrown: Military coups in twentieth century Latin America. Unpublished manuscript. Google Scholar
	Li, R. P. Y., Thompson, W. R. ( 1975 ). The coup contagion hypothesis . Journal of Conflict Resolution, 19(1), 63 - 84 . Google Scholar \| SAGE Journals \| ISI
	Lieuwen, E. ( 1960 ). Arms and politics in Latin America. New York, NY : Praeger . Google Scholar
	Londregan, J. B., Poole, K. T. ( 1990 ). Poverty, the coup trap, and the seizure of executive power . World Politics, 42, 151 - 183 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Luttwak, E. ( 1979 ). Coup d’etat: A practical handbook. Cambridge, MA : Harvard University Press . Google Scholar
	Maddison, A. ( 2003 ). The world economy: Historical statistics. Paris, France : Development Centre of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Mainwaring, S., Perez-Linan, A. ( 2005 ). Latin American democratization since 1978: Regime transitions, breakdowns, and erosions . In Hagopian, F., Mainwaring, S. (Eds.), The third wave of democratization in Latin America: Advances and setbacks (pp. 14 - 59 ). New York, NY : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Mainwaring, S., Perez-Linan, A. ( 2007 ). Why Regions of the World Are Important: Regional Specificities and Region-Wide Diffusion of Democracy . In Munck, G. (Ed) Regimes and Democracy in Latin America:Theories and Methods (pp. 199 - 229 ). Oxford, UK : Oxford University Press . Google Scholar
	Mainwaring, S., Perez-Linan, A. ( 2013 ). The Emergence and Fall of Democracies and Dictatorships: Latin America since 1900. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	McCleary, R. ( 1999 ). Dictating democracy: Guatemala and the end of violent revolution. Gainesville, FL : University Press of Florida . Google Scholar
	Needler, M. C. ( 1966 ). Political development and military intervention in Latin America . American political Science Review, 60, 616 - 626 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Negretto, G. L. ( 2006 ). Minority presidents and democratic performance in Latin America . Latin American Politics & Society, 48, 63 - 92 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Negretto, G. L. ( 2009 ). Political parties and institutional design: Explaining constitutional choice in Latin America . British Journal of Political Science, 39(1), 117 - 139 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Nickson, A. ( 1989 ). The overthrow of the Stroessner regime: Re-establishing the status quo . Bulletin of Latin American Research, 8, 185 - 209 . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Nun, J. ( 1967 ). The middle-class military coup . In Veliz, C. (Ed.), The politics of conformity in Latin America (pp 66 - 118 ). Oxford, England : Oxford University Press . Google Scholar
	Nunn, F. M. ( 1970 ). Chilean politics 1920-1931: The honorable mission of the armed forces. Albuquerque, NM : University of New Mexico Press . Google Scholar
	O’Donnell, G. A. ( 1973 ). Modernization and bureaucratic-authoritarianism: Studies in South American politics. Berkeley : Institute of International Studies, University of California . Google Scholar
	O’Kane, R. H. T. ( 1981 ). A probabilistic approach to the causes of coups d’etat . British Journal of Political Science, 11, 287 - 308 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Przeworski, A. ( 2009 ). The mechanics of regime instability in Latin America . Journal of Politics in Latin America, 1(1), 5 - 36 . Google Scholar \| SAGE Journals
	Przeworski, A., Alvarez, M. E., Cheibub, J. A., Limongi, F. ( 2000 ). Democracy and development: Political institutions and well-being in the world, 1950-1990. New York, NY : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Putnam, R. D. ( 1967 ). Explaining military intervention in Latin American politics . World Politics, 20(1), 83 - 110 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Remmer, K. L. ( 1996 ). The sustainability of political democracy: Lessons from South America . Comparative Political Studies, 29, 611 - 634 . Google Scholar \| SAGE Journals \| ISI
	Remmer, K. L. ( 1999 ). Regime sustainability in the Latin Caribbean, 1944-1994 . Journal of Developing Areas, 33(3), 331 - 354 . Google Scholar
	Ruhl, J. M. ( 1982 ). Social mobilization, military tradition and current patterns of civil-military relations in Latin America: Testing Putnam’s major conclusions . The Western Political Quarterly, 35, 574 - 586 . Google Scholar \| SAGE Journals
	Rustow, D. A. ( 1970 ). Transitions to democracy: Toward a dynamic model . Comparative Politics, 2, 337 - 363 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	?idak, Z. ( 1967 ). Rectangular confidence regions for the means of multivariate normal distributions . Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62, 626 - 633 . Google Scholar \| ISI
	Shugart, M. S., Carey, J. M. ( 1992 ). Presidents and assemblies: Constitutional design and electoral dynamics. New York, NY : Cambridge University Press . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Smith, P. H. ( 2005 ). Democracy in Latin America. New York, NY : Oxford University Press . Google Scholar
	Svolik, M. ( 2008 ). Authoritarian reversals and democratic consolidation . American political Science Review, 102, 153 - 168 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI
	Taylor, P. B. ( 1952 ). The Uruguayan coup d’etat of 1933 . Hispanic American Historical Review, 32, 301 - 320 . Google Scholar \| Crossref
	Thompson, W. R. ( 1973 ). The grievances of military coup-makers. Beverly Hills, CA : Sage . Google Scholar
	Valenzuela, A. ( 1978 ). The breakdown of democratic regimes: Chile. Baltimore, MD : Johns Hopkins University Press . Google Scholar
	Vanhanen, T. ( 1997 ).Prospects of democracy: A study of 172 countries. New York, NY : Routledge . Google Scholar
	Winship, C., Mare, R. D. ( 1992 ). Models for sample selection bias . Annual Review of Sociology, 18, 327 - 350 . Google Scholar \| Crossref \| ISI

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Breaking Out of the Coup Trap: Political Competition and Military Coups in Latin America

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