“It’s still a very, very long process,” said Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of Facts Global Energy, a market research firm. The pipelines require a decade or more to build. “The best thing for the Russians is to supply Europe because the capital is already sunk,” he said. “Europe can’t do without Russia and Russia can’t do without Europe. If you want to do away with dependence on Russia you need a 20-year plan.” For now, the Chinese deals are for Russia, “a way of saying we have other options.”
More broadly, testing the commercial prospects in China has been a slow and politically fraught exercise.
Since the Ussuri River border skirmishes that marked the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s, the Kremlin has perceived its long border with China as a security challenge as much as a commercial opportunity. The border was only fully demarcated in 2009. Despite the warm rhetoric, even simple infrastructure such as a planned new railroad bridge over the Amur River has been repeatedly delayed.
Deals are picking up, though. In another agreement announced in Beijing, the China National Petroleum Corporation agreed to buy a 10 percent stake in the giant Vankor Siberian oil field, which is majority owned by Rosneft.The new pipelines will take years to build. If completed as planned, they would export 68 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year to China.
Today, Germany is Russia’s largest customer buying 40 billion cubic meters annually. Still, the European Union as a whole would remain Russia’s largest customer, buying about twice as much as China would under the new deals.
“This is just business as usual,” Yan Vaslavski, an associate professor of political science at Moscow State Institute of International Relations, said in a telephone interview of the gas deals. Russia has no intention of diminishing gas shipments to Europe, integrally important for the Russian economy as they are. Instead, the China deals are insurance, he said: Should Europe squeeze Russian energy companies, they ensure revenue from west Siberian petroleum fields.
“Russia is not turning its back on Europe,” he said. “But if Russia doesn’t turn to the East in time, this train will leave without Russia.”