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Did surface-to-air missile take down airliner? - CNN.com
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Did surface-to-air missile take down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17?

By Michael Pearson, CNN

Updated 6:53 PM ET, Thu July 17, 2014

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Story highlights

  • Senior U.S. official: Radar saw surface-to-air missile system track aircraft
  • A sophisticated surface-to-air missile was more likely used, experts say
  • One possibility is the Russian-made Buk missile system, retired Army officer says
  • The sophisticated weapon would require professional soldiers, expert says
What kind of weapon can shoot down a fully loaded passenger jet flying at nearly 33,000 feet?
That could be a key question in the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crash investigation, as officials try to determine what was responsible for Thursday's plane crash in volatile eastern Ukraine.
A radar system saw a surface-to-air missile system turn on and track an aircraft right before the plane went down, a senior U.S. official told CNN's Barbara Starr. And a second system saw a heat signature at the time the airliner was hit. The United States is analyzing the trajectory of the missile to pinpoint where the attack came from, the official said.
Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to the Ukrainian Interior Ministry, said in a Facebook post that "terrorists" fired on the plane operating a Buk surface-to-air missile system.
A Ukrainian official also told CNN's Jim Sciutto on Thursday that separatists claimed to have brought down another plane around the same time Flight 17 went missing.
Debris from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 sits in a field at the crash site in Hrabove, Ukraine, on September 9, 2014. The Boeing 777 was shot down July 17, 2014, over Ukrainian territory controlled by pro-Russian separatists. All 298 people on board were killed. In an October 2015 report, Dutch investigators found the flight was shot down by a warhead that fit a Buk rocket, referring to Russian technology, Dutch Safety Board Chairman Tjibbe Joustra said.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Debris from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 sits in a field at the crash site in Hrabove, Ukraine, on September 9, 2014. The Boeing 777 was shot down July 17, 2014, over Ukrainian territory controlled by pro-Russian separatists. All 298 people on board were killed. In an October 2015 report, Dutch investigators found the flight was shot down by a warhead that fit a Buk rocket, referring to Russian technology, Dutch Safety Board Chairman Tjibbe Joustra said.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Debris from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 sits in a field at the crash site in Hrabove, Ukraine, on September 9, 2014. The Boeing 777 was shot down July 17, 2014, over Ukrainian territory controlled by pro-Russian separatists. All 298 people on board were killed. In an October 2015 report, Dutch investigators found the flight was shot down by a warhead that fit a Buk rocket, referring to Russian technology, Dutch Safety Board Chairman Tjibbe Joustra said.
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Australian and Dutch experts examine the area of the crash on August 3, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Australian and Dutch experts examine the area of the crash on August 3, 2014.
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A woman walks with her bicycle near the crash site on August 2, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A woman walks with her bicycle near the crash site on August 2, 2014.
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Police secure a refrigerated train loaded with bodies of passengers from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 as it arrives in a Kharkiv, Ukraine, factory on July 22, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Police secure a refrigerated train loaded with bodies of passengers from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 as it arrives in a Kharkiv, Ukraine, factory on July 22, 2014.
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A pro-Russian rebel passes wreckage from the crashed jet near Hrabove on Monday, July 21, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A pro-Russian rebel passes wreckage from the crashed jet near Hrabove on Monday, July 21, 2014.
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Wreckage from the jet lies in grass near Hrabove on July 21, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
– Wreckage from the jet lies in grass near Hrabove on July 21, 2014.
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A man covers his face with a rag as members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the Dutch National Forensic Investigations Team inspect bodies in a refrigerated train near the crash site in eastern Ukraine on July 21, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A man covers his face with a rag as members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the Dutch National Forensic Investigations Team inspect bodies in a refrigerated train near the crash site in eastern Ukraine on July 21, 2014.
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Emergency workers carry a victim's body in a bag at the crash site on July 21, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Emergency workers carry a victim's body in a bag at the crash site on July 21, 2014.
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A piece of the plane lies in the grass in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region on July 21, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A piece of the plane lies in the grass in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region on July 21, 2014.
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An armed pro-Russian rebel stands guard next to a refrigerated train loaded with bodies in Torez, Ukraine, on Sunday, July 20, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
An armed pro-Russian rebel stands guard next to a refrigerated train loaded with bodies in Torez, Ukraine, on Sunday, July 20, 2014.
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Ukrainian State Emergency Service employees sort through debris on July 20, 2014, as they work to locate the deceased.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Ukrainian State Emergency Service employees sort through debris on July 20, 2014, as they work to locate the deceased.
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A woman covers her mouth with a piece of fabric July 20, 2014, to ward off smells from railway cars that reportedly contained passengers' bodies.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A woman covers her mouth with a piece of fabric July 20, 2014, to ward off smells from railway cars that reportedly contained passengers' bodies.
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Toys and flowers sit on the charred fuselage of the jet as a memorial on July 20, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Toys and flowers sit on the charred fuselage of the jet as a memorial on July 20, 2014.
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People search a wheat field for remains in the area of the crash site on July 20, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
People search a wheat field for remains in the area of the crash site on July 20, 2014.
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A woman walks among charred debris at the crash site on July 20, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A woman walks among charred debris at the crash site on July 20, 2014.
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Emergency workers load the body of a victim onto a truck at the crash site on Saturday, July 19, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Emergency workers load the body of a victim onto a truck at the crash site on Saturday, July 19, 2014.
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Emergency workers carry the body of a victim at the crash site on July 19, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Emergency workers carry the body of a victim at the crash site on July 19, 2014.
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A large piece of the main cabin is under guard at the crash site on July 19, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A large piece of the main cabin is under guard at the crash site on July 19, 2014.
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Victims' bodies are placed by the side of the road on July 19, 2014, as recovery efforts continue at the crash site. International officials lament the lack of a secured perimeter.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Victims' bodies are placed by the side of the road on July 19, 2014, as recovery efforts continue at the crash site. International officials lament the lack of a secured perimeter.
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A man looks through the debris at the crash site on July 19, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A man looks through the debris at the crash site on July 19, 2014.
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An envelope bearing the Malaysia Airlines logo is seen at the crash site on July 19, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
An envelope bearing the Malaysia Airlines logo is seen at the crash site on July 19, 2014.
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Armed rebels walk past large pieces of the Boeing 777 on July 19, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Armed rebels walk past large pieces of the Boeing 777 on July 19, 2014.
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Ukrainian rescue workers walk through a wheat field with a stretcher as they collect the bodies of victims on July 19, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Ukrainian rescue workers walk through a wheat field with a stretcher as they collect the bodies of victims on July 19, 2014.
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A woman looks at wreckage on July 19, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A woman looks at wreckage on July 19, 2014.
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Pro-Russian rebels stand guard as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe delegation arrives at the crash site on Friday, July 18, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Pro-Russian rebels stand guard as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe delegation arrives at the crash site on Friday, July 18, 2014.
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A woman walks through the debris field on July 18, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A woman walks through the debris field on July 18, 2014.
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Pro-Russian rebels stand guard at the crash site.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Pro-Russian rebels stand guard at the crash site.
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Wreckage from Flight 17 lies in a field in Shaktarsk, Ukraine, on July 18, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Wreckage from Flight 17 lies in a field in Shaktarsk, Ukraine, on July 18, 2014.
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A man covers a body with a plastic sheet near the crash site on July 18, 2014. The passengers and crew hailed from all over the world, including Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Germany and Canada.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A man covers a body with a plastic sheet near the crash site on July 18, 2014. The passengers and crew hailed from all over the world, including Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Germany and Canada.
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A diver searches for the jet's flight data recorders on July 18, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A diver searches for the jet's flight data recorders on July 18, 2014.
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Coal miners search the crash site.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Coal miners search the crash site.
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Wreckage from the Boeing 777 lies on the ground July 18, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Wreckage from the Boeing 777 lies on the ground July 18, 2014.
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People search for bodies of passengers on July 18, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
People search for bodies of passengers on July 18, 2014.
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A woman walks past a body covered with a plastic sheet near the crash site July 18, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A woman walks past a body covered with a plastic sheet near the crash site July 18, 2014.
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Belongings of passengers lie in the grass on July 18, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Belongings of passengers lie in the grass on July 18, 2014.
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People inspect the crash site on Thursday, July 17, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
People inspect the crash site on Thursday, July 17, 2014.
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People walk amid the debris at the site of the crash.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
People walk amid the debris at the site of the crash.
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Debris smoulders in a field near the Russian border.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Debris smoulders in a field near the Russian border.
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Fire engines arrive at the crash site.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Fire engines arrive at the crash site.
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A man stands next to wreckage.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A man stands next to wreckage.
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Debris from the crashed jet lies in a field in Ukraine.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Debris from the crashed jet lies in a field in Ukraine.
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Family members of those aboard Flight 17 leave Schiphol Airport near Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Family members of those aboard Flight 17 leave Schiphol Airport near Amsterdam, Netherlands.
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A large piece of the plane lies on the ground.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A large piece of the plane lies on the ground.
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Luggage from the flight sits in a field at the crash site.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Luggage from the flight sits in a field at the crash site.
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A couple walks to the location at Schiphol Airport where more information would be given regarding the flight.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A couple walks to the location at Schiphol Airport where more information would be given regarding the flight.
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Flight arrivals are listed at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Sepang, Malaysia.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Flight arrivals are listed at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Sepang, Malaysia.
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Debris from the Boeing 777, pictured on July 17, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Debris from the Boeing 777, pictured on July 17, 2014.
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A man inspects debris from the plane.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A man inspects debris from the plane.
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Wreckage from the plane is seen on July 17, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Wreckage from the plane is seen on July 17, 2014.
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A man talks with security at Schiphol Airport on July 17, 2014.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A man talks with security at Schiphol Airport on July 17, 2014.
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Wreckage burns in Ukraine.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
Wreckage burns in Ukraine.
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A man stands next to the wreckage of the airliner.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A man stands next to the wreckage of the airliner.
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People inspect a piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to <a href="https://twitter.com/MatevzNovak" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
People inspect a piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter .
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People inspect a piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
People inspect a piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter.
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A piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to <a href="https://twitter.com/MatevzNovak" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter .
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A piece of wreckage believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to <a href="https://twitter.com/MatevzNovak" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A piece of wreckage believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to Twitter .
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An airsickness bag believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to <a href="https://twitter.com/MatevzNovak" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
An airsickness bag believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to Twitter .
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A piece of wreckage believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to <a href="https://twitter.com/MatevzNovak" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
Photos: Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crashes in Ukraine
A piece of wreckage believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to Twitter .
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This weapon could take down an airliner 03:39
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What we know about the MH17 crash 02:03
But what could have shot down the Malaysia Airlines flight?
Shoulder-fired missiles sometimes in the arsenals of rebel and separatists groups would be ruled out, experts said.
"At normal cruising altitude a civilian passenger aircraft would be out of the range of the sort of manned portable air (defense) systems that we have seen proliferate in rebel hands in east Ukraine," IHS Jane's Defence Weekly's Nick de Larrinaga said in an e-mail.
Such shoulder-mounted weapons at best can reach 15,000 feet, said CNN military analyst Rick Francona, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel.
"This would indicate a surface-to-air missile or an air-to-air missile, and I think a surface-to-air missile is probably the best guess right now," he said.
One candidate is the Buk missile system, developed during the Soviet era and operated by Russian and Ukrainian forces.
The missile system, known as the SA-11 among NATO forces, is operated by both Russian and Ukrainian forces, according to retired Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan, director of the Defense and Intelligence Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University.
And it's more than capable of taking down an airliner flying at that altitude, he said.
Such weapons travel with Russian troops at the division level, Francona said.
"So the Russians on the other side of the Ukrainian border will have all of this weaponry available to them," he said.
Other possibilities include Russian-made S-200 missiles that are operated by the Ukrainian military as well as the Russian S-300 and S-400 missiles. The latter weapons are the Russian equivalent of U.S. Patriot missile defense batteries.
What seems unlikely is that pro-Russia separatists might have gained control of such a sophisticated piece of weaponry and used it to shoot down an airliner, Ryan said.
"It takes a lot of training and a lot of coordination to fire one of these and hit something," he said.
Map: Approximate route of MH17
Map: Approximate route of MH17
Typically, a surface-to-air battery missile consists of a command post vehicle, a radar vehicle, several self-propelled launchers, loader vehicles and even more vehicles to carry new missiles to the batteries as necessary, according to Dan Wasserbly, Americas editor for IHS Jane's.
Ryan concludes then that if the plane really was shot down, a professional military force -- either on purpose or by accident -- was responsible.
"This is not the kind of weapon a couple of guys are going to pull out of a garage and fire," he said.
READ: Should downed Malaysian jet have flown over Ukraine?
READ: Friends, relatives grieve for MH17 passengers
READ: List of civilian planes shot down