Mohamed El-Erian: Brexit could solve a fundamental EU problem

Published: June 13, 2016 5:55 a.m. ET

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Sara Sjolin/MarketWatch
El-Erian offers a contrarian view on the prospective U.K. departure from the European Union.

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Markets reporter

BERLIN (MarketWatch) ? A U.K. exit from the European Union may be the necessary evil that secures the future of the political bloc, even if it carries the cost of short-term volatility, according to former Pimco executive Mohamed El-Erian.

Taking what he himself labels a contrarian view of the June 23 referendum, the chief economic adviser at Allianz told money managers at the FundForum International in Berlin that a “Brexit” could resolve some key issues within the EU.

Ironically, over the longer term, an exit may actually solve one of the basic inconsistencies of the European Union.

“There are two fundamental divisions of the EU: There’s the British view ? that it’s a super free-trade zone, that it’s a destination. Whereas the Germany-France view is that it’s a means to something else ? to an ever closer union. These are fundamentally two very different views on what the EU is about,” he said.

“If the referendum [results in the U.K. remaining in the union],” El-Erian said, “we don’t resolve these different views. It means we are going to have tensions over and over again, because they are pursuing two different objectives, within one institutional agreement. So, ironically, over the longer term, an exit may actually solve one of the basic inconsistencies of the European Union.”

With less than two weeks to go till the referendum, both the “leave” and “remain” campaigns have been sharpening their rhetoric in their final pushes to win over the British public. The stay camp was leading the polls just two weeks ago, but the latest surveys published this week point to a prospective win for the Brexiteers. The two camps are still battling out the economic consequences of a leave vote, with the remain backers warning of significant financial instability even as the leave campaigners predict a stronger domestic economy ahead.

Brexit 101: The U.K.'s EU referendum explained

Should the U.K. remain in or leave the European Union? That's the question the British public will decide in a referendum on June 23. Here’s what's at stake.

Economists widely agree that a pro-Brexit result would trigger short-term volatility, with the pound GBPUSD, -0.1338% ?particularly bound to be hit hard. Sterling, in fact, has been on a referendum-related roller coaster for several weeks already, driven by the shifts in public sentiment. It traded around $1.4590 on Tuesday, after trading close to a three-week low on Monday.

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At FundForum here in Berlin, the general feeling ? El-Erian aside ? has seemed to be that the U.K., the EU and to some extent the global economy would be better off with the status quo.

Joseph di Censo, portfolio manager for BlackRock’s global fixed-income group, described the atmosphere surrounding a Brexit as “excessive downside risks, with limited upside gain.”

‘What we are trying to do as investors is to insulate our portfolios as best as we can.’
Joseph di Censo, BlackRock

“It’s an event that’s difficult to predict. What we are trying to do as investors is to insulate our portfolios as best as we can. That means making certain there are no unintended exposures,” di Censo said in a panel debate about the biggest risks to the investment outlook.

“And the hardest part,” he added, “is not the U.K. exposures but the European exposures. We believe that if the U.K. leaves the EU the fallout for the remaining 27 countries, and specifically the euro area, will be substantial. And that’s a risk that’s incredible difficult to full hedge.”

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Sara Sjolin is a MarketWatch reporter based in London. Follow her on Twitter @sarasjolin.

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Sara Sjolin is a MarketWatch reporter based in London. Follow her on Twitter @sarasjolin.

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