September 3, 2013 - De Blasio Surges Past 40% In New York City Mayoral Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Quinn, Thompson Battle For Runoff Spot - If There Is One PDF format With 47 percent of black voters and 44 percent of women voters, New York City Public Advocate Bill de Blasio surges to 43 percent of likely voters in the Democratic primary for mayor, passing the 40 percent cutoff and possibly avoiding a runoff, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Former City Comptroller and 2009 Democratic nominee William Thompson is at 20 percent, with 18 percent for City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, 7 percent for former U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner, 4 percent for Comptroller John Liu, 1 percent for former Council member Sal Albanese and 8 percent undecided. This compares to results of an August 28 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University which showed de Blasio at 36 percent, with 21 percent for Quinn, 20 percent for Thompson, 8 percent for Weiner and 6 percent for Liu. In today's survey, women likely Democratic primary voters go 44 percent for de Blasio, 19 percent for Thompson and 18 percent for Quinn. Men go 41 percent for de Blasio, 20 percent for Thompson and 18 percent for Quinn. Black voters go 47 percent for de Blasio, 25 percent for Thompson and 6 percent for Quinn. White voters go 42 percent for de Blasio, 28 percent for Quinn and 16 percent for Thompson. "Can Public Advocate Bill de Blasio keep his surge going for seven more days? If he does, his first contribution could be to the New York City budget - saving the expense of a run- off election," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Dante's big Afro is the campaign image everyone remembers. What a TV commercial! What a boost with everyone who has kids! What a plus in the black community!" "Whether it's Dante or the issues, or a mixture of both, de Blasio leads Speaker Christine Quinn among women and former Comptroller Bill Thompson among black voters," Carroll added. "Council Speaker Christine Quinn's collapse could be part of a seeming New York tradition of throwing female candidates under the bandwagon wheels. Well-known women such as Carol Bellamy, Mary Codd and Ruth Messinger all came up short." If there is a Democratic primary runoff, matchups are: De Blasio over Quinn 66 - 25 percent; De Blasio leads Thompson 56 - 36 percent; Thompson tops Quinn 59 - 33 percent. With seven days until the primary, 24 percent of likely Democratic primary voters say there is a good chance they will change their mind, but 61 percent of Thompson voters, 59 percent of de Blasio backers and 56 percent of Quinn supporters say they definitely will vote for their candidate. De Blasio and Thompson lead in the "enthusiasm" rating as 40 percent of de Blasio voters, 38 percent of Thompson backers and 30 percent of Quinn supporters say they are "very enthusiastic" about their candidate. Former Metropolitan Transportation Authority CEO Joseph Lhota has 48 percent of likely Republican primary voters, with 24 percent for businessman John Catsimatidis and 10 percent for Doe Fund founder George McDonald. "With his liberal platform, de Blasio would be a tempting target for Joseph Lhota and the Republicans, if the race works out that way," Carroll said. From August 28 - September 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 750 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points and 101 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 9.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu, Christine Quinn, Bill Thompson, Bill de Blasio, Anthony Weiner and Sal Albanese, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Liu, Quinn, Thompson, de Blasio, Weiner or Albanese? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................ AGE IN YRS COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Wht Blk <50 50+ Yes No Liu 4% 6% 3% 3% 6% 4% 5% 3% 5% Quinn 18 18 18 28 6 19 17 23 13 Thompson 20 20 19 16 25 17 22 19 20 de Blasio 43 41 44 42 47 47 39 45 40 Weiner 7 8 6 4 7 7 7 3 10 Albanese 1 1 1 2 - - 1 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - - 1 - - 1 DK/NA 8 5 10 5 9 5 10 5 10 POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ DEMOCRAT........ Very SmWht Con Strong NotStrong Liu 3% 4% 6% 3% 11% Quinn 21 24 14 20 14 Thompson 11 15 26 18 23 de Blasio 54 45 35 45 37 Weiner 4 2 11 7 6 Albanese 1 - 1 - 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - DK/NA 6 10 7 6 8 TREND: If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu, Christine Quinn, Bill Thompson, Bill de Blasio, Anthony Weiner and Sal Albanese, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Liu, Quinn, Thompson, de Blasio, Weiner or Albanese? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS...... Sep 03 Aug 28 Aug 13 Jul 29 Jul 24 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 Liu 4 6 6 6 7 Quinn 18 21 24 27 22 Thompson 20 20 22 20 20 de Blasio 43 36 30 21 15 Weiner 7 8 10 16 26 Albanese 1 1 1 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - - - DK/NA 8 8 7 7 8 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice q1), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Quinn Thompsn DeBlasio Def vote for cand 60% 56% 61% 59% Unlikely to change 13 17 12 12 Good chance change 24 23 25 25 DK/NA 3 4 2 3 TREND: (If candidate chosen) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Sep 03 Aug 28 Aug 13 Jul 24 2013 2013 2013 2013 Def vote for cand 60 49 46 45 Unlikely to change 13 15 16 14 Good chance change 24 31 34 35 DK/NA 3 6 4 6 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate chosen), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Quinn Thompsn DeBlasio Very enthusiastic 38% 30% 38% 40% Somewht enthusiastic 52 61 49 54 Not so enthusiastic 6 7 9 3 Not enthus at all 3 1 2 3 DK/NA 1 - 1 - TREND: (If candidate chosen) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Sep 03 Aug 28 Aug 13 Jul 24 2013 2013 2013 2013 Very enthusiastic 38 33 30 27 Somewht enthusiastic 52 53 55 57 Not so enthusiastic 6 9 11 10 Not enthus at all 3 4 4 4 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 1c. (If candidate chosen q1) Who is your second choice? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Quinn Thompsn DeBlasio Liu 7% 5% 5% 10% Quinn 14 - 13 22 Thompson 29 23 - 45 de Blasio 24 49 56 - Weiner 7 4 7 8 Albanese 1 - 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 3 1 ALREADY VOTED 1 2 - 1 DK/NA 15 14 16 12 TREND: (If candidate chosen) Who is your second choice? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Sep 03 Aug 28 2013 2013 Liu 7 6 Quinn 14 14 Thompson 29 23 de Blasio 24 26 Weiner 7 9 Albanese 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 ALREADY VOTED 1 - DK/NA 15 18 2. Are there any candidates in the Democratic primary for Mayor that you would definitely not vote for under any circumstances? IF YES: Who is that? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................ AGE IN YRS COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Wht Blk <50 50+ Yes No Liu 12% 13% 10% 17% 8% 11% 11% 15% 9% Quinn 35 38 32 30 39 38 32 31 39 Thompson 5 8 3 5 4 7 4 5 5 de Blasio 6 8 5 10 1 3 9 6 7 Weiner 44 43 45 53 33 41 46 52 36 Albanese 9 12 7 9 8 8 10 9 10 Other 1 1 2 2 - 1 2 1 1 No-one 12 15 11 9 19 13 12 12 12 ALREADY VOTED 1 - 2 2 - - 2 1 1 DK/NA 7 3 10 3 10 6 9 5 10 POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ DEMOCRAT........ Very SmWht Con Strong NotStrong Liu 11% 14% 11% 10% 15% Quinn 37 32 35 29 47 Thompson 5 4 5 5 4 de Blasio 5 4 9 4 12 Weiner 47 49 42 42 49 Albanese 6 7 10 9 11 Other 1 2 1 1 1 No-one 12 9 14 15 8 ALREADY VOTED 2 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 5 8 8 9 3 TREND: Are there any candidates in the Democratic primary for Mayor that you would definitely not vote for under any circumstances? IF YES: Who is that? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Sep 03 Aug 28 Aug 13 Jul 24 2013 2013 2013 2013 Liu 12 17 15 18 Quinn 35 29 24 31 Thompson 5 6 5 5 de Blasio 6 6 3 7 Weiner 44 47 51 28 Albanese 9 8 5 8 Other 1 2 1 1 No-one 12 16 14 24 ALREADY VOTED 1 - - - DK/NA 7 7 10 9 3. (INTRO Q3-5: If none of the candidates in the Democratic primary for mayor gets 40% of the vote, there is a run-off election between the two candidates with the most votes.) If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Christine Quinn, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Quinn? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................ AGE IN YRS COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Wht Blk <50 50+ Yes No de Blasio 66% 67% 65% 58% 79% 69% 63% 65% 67% Quinn 25 24 26 34 15 24 25 28 22 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 7 2 4 2 3 5 3 5 DK/NA 5 2 7 4 4 3 7 4 6 POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ DEMOCRAT........ Very SmWht Con Strong NotStrong de Blasio 72% 66% 62% 65% 74% Quinn 22 29 26 27 21 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 6 2 4 DK/NA 4 4 6 6 1 TREND: (INTRO: If none of the candidates in the Democratic primary for mayor gets 40% of the vote, there is a run-off election between the two candidates with the most votes.) If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Christine Quinn, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Quinn? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Sep 03 Aug 28 Aug 13 2013 2013 2013 de Blasio 66 59 54 Quinn 25 30 38 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 DK/NA 5 8 5 4. If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Thompson? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................ AGE IN YRS COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Wht Blk <50 50+ Yes No de Blasio 56% 52% 60% 62% 52% 60% 54% 62% 51% Thompson 36 41 33 31 37 36 37 33 40 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 1 2 2 1 2 1 3 DK/NA 5 4 6 5 9 3 7 4 7 POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ DEMOCRAT........ Very SmWht Con Strong NotStrong de Blasio 72% 62% 46% 59% 54% Thompson 25 34 45 35 39 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 3 1 2 DK/NA 3 3 6 5 4 TREND: If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Thompson? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Sep 03 Aug 28 Aug 13 2013 2013 2013 de Blasio 56 52 50 Thompson 36 36 41 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 5 9 7 5. If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Christine Quinn and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward Quinn or Thompson? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................ AGE IN YRS COLLEGE DEG Tot Men Wom Wht Blk <50 50+ Yes No Quinn 33% 29% 35% 47% 17% 34% 32% 38% 28% Thompson 59 62 58 47 75 62 58 56 63 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 7 1 3 3 3 4 2 5 DK/NA 5 2 7 3 5 2 6 4 5 POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL..... Mod/ DEMOCRAT........ Very SmWht Con Strong NotStrong Quinn 41% 38% 26% 38% 22% Thompson 53 56 64 57 69 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 6 1 4 DK/NA 5 5 4 4 5 TREND: If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Christine Quinn and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward Quinn or Thompson? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS...... Sep 03 Aug 28 Aug 13 Jul 29 Jul 24 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 Quinn 33 33 41 40 42 Thompson 59 57 51 50 51 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 2 2 DK/NA 5 8 6 7 5 7. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the - Thompson campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Quinn Thompsn DeBlasio Yes 19% 11% 30% 18% No 78 87 63 79 DK/NA 3 2 6 3 TREND: Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the Thompson campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Sep 03 Aug 28 2013 2013 Yes 19 16 No 78 82 DK/NA 3 2 8. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the - Quinn campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Quinn Thompsn DeBlasio Yes 25% 30% 29% 26% No 73 69 70 72 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 TREND: Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the Quinn campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Sep 03 Aug 28 2013 2013 Yes 25 20 No 73 77 DK/NA 2 3 9. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the - De Blasio campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Quinn Thompsn DeBlasio Yes 17% 14% 17% 20% No 81 85 79 79 DK/NA 3 1 4 1 TREND: Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the De Blasio campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not? LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS Sep 03 Aug 28 2013 2013 Yes 17 17 No 81 80 DK/NA 3 2 10. If the Republican primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lhota, John Catsimatidis, and George McDonald, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Lhota, Catsimatidis, or McDonald? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Tot Lhota 48% Catsimatidis 24 McDonald 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 17 TREND: If the Republican primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lhota, John Catsimatidis, and George McDonald, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the primary were today, would you lean more toward Lhota, Catsimatidis, or McDonald? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS Sep 03 Aug 13 Jul 24 2013 2013 2013 Lhota 48 43 49% Catsimatidis 24 37 35 McDonald 10 9 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - DK/NA 17 11 9 Demographic Summary