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The Monetary Future: hyperinflation
Showing posts with label hyperinflation . Show all posts
Showing posts with label hyperinflation . Show all posts

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Bitcoin, Dollars and Pot-Banging Protests in Argentina

By The Blue Market
Thursday, October 18, 2012


200.000 people in the Plaza de Mayo
This post is a peep into the underground exchange markets for dollars and bitcoins in Argentina. For the last couple of weeks, I have experienced the informal exchange of bitcoin and dollars on first hand in Buenos Aires. Furthermore, I have realized how both locals and expats may reap significant gains by using bitcoins as a medium of exchange.

Inflation and Monetary Restrictions

Before we dive into the details of the underground markets in Argentina, let me try to paint the picture of the current economic situation in Argentina.

For several years the Argentine inflation rate has been bumping around 25-30% per annum, according to figures published by independent institutions. The Argentine government doesn’t recognize the independent estimates and has allied with INDEC, the National Statistics Institute, to calculate inflation figures 2-3 times lower than the independent figures . The interesting fact is that the peso’s fixed exchange rate with the dollar is only taking into account INDEC’s inflation rate of 8-12%, causing overvaluation of the peso by not incorporating the true higher inflation rate. INDEC is indeed a neat implementation of an Orwellian “Ministry of Truth”, and the magic calculations have raised concerns with IMF who is threatening to expel Argentina from the organization .

Naturally the high inflation rate has caused capital flight out of Argentina, and every Argentine with a bit of savings is looking to exchange their pesos into something more secure. In order to stop the capital flight and fortify the central bank’s reserves, the government has implemented strict measures to prevent Argentines from obtaining foreign currencies. For example, only if you are travelling abroad are you allowed to exchange pesos for dollars legally, but there is a limit of 100$ per day abroad. Recently the government also imposed a 15% tax on all foreign credit card purchases, and a 50% custom duty on any goods which Argentines purchased abroad . Aside from the outrageous taxes, this legislation completely flashes your personal banking details to government officials, who can then snoop on your shopping list.

The complex regulatory environment has caused Paypal to suspend all domestic transactions in Argentina . Ebay and Amazon has followed suit with similar restrictions.

The Blue Dollar

In Argentina the dollar you care about is blue. The reason is that the difficulty for locals to acquire dollars through traditional means has fueled a secondary dollar exchange market. The unofficial exchange rate, known as the “blue dollar rate”, is approximately 25% higher than the official rate .


For expats, it’s a no-brainer that you are being ripped-off by withdrawing cash at ATMs from established banks, where the withdrawal is conducted at the official exchange rate currently around $ARS 4.70 pesos per dollar. In comparison, if you exchange USD on the “blue market” you get around $ARS 6.20  pesos per dollar.

Luckily before travelling to Argentina, my girlfriend and I were tipped off to this news and carried along dollars in cash when entering the country. One can exchange dollars at the blue market rate simply by heading to Bs. Aires main shopping street, Calle Florida. Here lots of street vendors are drifting around advertising their business to anyone who looks like a potential customer. The street vendors here are known as arbolitos by locals. Arbolitos means “little trees”, a reference to the street vendors are full of “green leaves”. If you are looking to exchange dollars the street vendors will quickly approach you and provide a quote. If you accept the quote, you just head to a nearby jewelry or electronics shop and complete the transaction.

Above approach is generally safe but I wasn’t too keen on exchanging dollars with street vendors. Instead I posted a small note on an online forum and got in contact with a couple living in Buenos Aires, who were eager to exchange dollars for pesos at the blue market rate. The snapshot below is the result of this exchange – and what an underground dollar market looks like.

The Bitcoin Hero

The dollars we brought into Argentina are soon running out, and we have been looking for alternatives to increase our dollar reserves. One approach is to cross the border to Uruguay – but you have the hassle of ATM withdrawal limits and the risk of travelling with lots of cash. There is also a service called Xoom , which allows you to transfer money from abroad to various pick-up locations in Bs. Aires. The magic of Xoom is that they somehow manage to provide the blue dollar exchange rate. Unfortunately they also require a US bank account to use its services.

Another possibility is Bitcoin , a new electronic currency, which has been flourishing online for the last couple of years. In our situation Bitcoin has turned out to be a great vehicle to transfer money into Argentina and achieve the blue dollar exchange rate. I completed my first bitcoin to pesos transaction last week and gained 25% in comparison to the official exchange rate.

The way it works is that you simply buy some bitcoins online through one of the many bitcoin exchanges. Mt.Gox is by far the largest but there are local alternatives as well, such as Bitcoin Nordic . Once you have your bitcoins you identify an Argentine who is on the market for bitcoins at the blue dollar rate. Given the economic situation there are lots of Argentines who are looking to get rid of pesos in exchange for other more secure assets.

In my case I circulated a note to Eudemocracia’s bitcoin mailing list announcing that I was interested in selling bitcoins. The price I offered was the Mt.Gox USD price converted to pesos at the blue USD exchange rate. Based on the number of replies this was an attractive offer, and after some email correspondence, I agreed  to meet up with one contact and conduct the transaction. After getting the agreed pesos in cash I made a one-click transfer of bitcoins to his online bitcoin wallet. A bitcoin transfer is instant and non reversible, and the picture below shows how we could confirm completion of the transaction on the spot.

Because of the dollar restrictions and the escalating inflation the demand for bitcoins in Argentina is greater than our personal need for pesos. Therefore, if you are an expat or just travelling through I encourage you to explore bitcoin as an alternative to finance your stay. Not only will you get a 25% higher exchange rate but you will also help locals protect their savings from being hollowed by inflation.

I believe the bitcoin adventure is just kicking off in Argentina. Also I’m keen to see how the 200.000 Argentines demonstrating for libertad in the Plaza de Mayo might use bitcoin to fight the monetary restrictions themselves. Maybe it’s an even better approach than banging a pot ?

Sunday, October 14, 2012

As Inflation Rages In Iran, Bitcoin Software Not Available

By Jon Matonis
Forbes
Tuesday, October 9, 2012

 http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/10/09/as-inflation-rages-in-iran-bitcoin-software-not-available/

Hyperinflation has hit Iran hard . The government has stepped up censorship of currency exchange websites such as Mesghal.com and Mazanex.com, which had rates blanked out for the rial’s value against other nations’ currencies on Tuesday. Several major foreign airlines announced that they were discontinuing service into Tehran due to the volatility of the Iranian rial and shipping giant Maersk halted all port calls to Iran.

If severe currency devaluation and disruptive Internet cyber-attacks were not enough, the regular people of Iran have had access blocked to certain open source software sites for downloading applications such as Bitcoin. The 32-month-old blockade hasn’t been instigated by Iran’s mullahs but by the U.S.-led embargo which prohibits certain persons from receiving services via open source hosting sites.

The original and ‘reference’ Bitcoin client is hosted in the United States on GeekNet’s SourceForge.net who explained their denial of site access policy on their blog :
"The specific list of sanctions that affect our users concern the transfer and export of certain technology to foreign persons and governments on the sanctions list. This means users residing in countries on the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanction list, including Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Sudan, and Syria, may not post content to, or access content available through, SourceForge.net. Last week, SourceForge.net began automatic blocking of certain IP addresses to enforce those conditions of use."
Then, after an angry reaction from project administrators and developers, SourceForge removed the blanket blocking and modified their policy to put the power of determining a block trigger in the hands of each project’s leadership, as announced in their February 2010 blog posting :
"Beginning now, every project admin can click on Develop -> Project Admin -> Project Settings to find a new section called Export Control. By default, we’ve ticked the more restrictive setting. If you conclude that your project is *not* subject to export regulations, or any other related prohibitions, you may now tick the other check mark and click Update. After that, all users will be able to download your project files as they did before last month’s change."
Therefore, the export control determination has to be made by the project’s registered administrator on SourceForge, which for Bitcoin is lead developer Gavin Andresen after assuming the role from Bitcoin creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.

Export of software from the U.S., including software that deploys encryption functions, is controlled by the Bureau of Industry and Security ( BIS ) in accordance with the Export Administration Regulations ( EAR ).

Andresen, who is also Chief Scientist for Bitcoin Foundation, stated that Bitcoin compiles against the full OpenSSL library and the wallet encryption feature uses AES-256 which is what places Bitcoin in the above category. The SourceForge option that Bitcoin.org selects to remain in compliance with U.S. law states, “This project incorporates, accesses, calls upon or otherwise uses encryption software with a symmetric key length greater than 64 bits (“encryption”). This review does not include products that use encryption for authentication only.”

Forget about the mere difficulties of obtaining and trading bitcoin for national fiat currency in Iran — without the client software, they are not even there yet. Other Bitcoin “experts” have alluded to alternative methods of downloading the Bitcoin client such as using non-U.S. independent mirrored sites, Virtual Private Network (VPN) for IP address masking, Tor if your country has an exit node, or BitTorrent file sharing.

Aside from the inherent weaknesses within the entire SSL infrastructure, other download channels, and even SourceForge itself, present challenges. The initial install code would need to be verified for authenticity and the only way to accomplish that is to have the core developer sign the code personally or have a neutral third-party like the Bitcoin Foundation sign downloadable code with their certificate as a registered developer.

In extreme circumstances the verified source code can be compiled directly by the user so that downloading binaries is not necessary. Source code can also be distributed in text-based form like a PDF or scanable book which is what MIT did for Phil Zimmermann and later what 70 international volunteers did for the PGPi Scanning Project in 1997. More and more, the Bitcoin Project is starting to look like the Pretty Good Privacy (PGP) secure email program with each passing day.

For further reading:
"More surreal events in the Crypto Cold War - the BitCoin blockade of Iran" , Ian Grigg, October 14, 2012
"US Laws Restrict Individual Freedom and SourceForge Complies" , Ryan Bagueros, March 4, 2010
"Should open-source repositories block nations under U.S. sanctions?" , Sharon Machlis, Computerworld , January 25, 2010

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Robert Wenzel to Federal Reserve: “Leave the Building to the Four-Legged Rats”

By Jon Matonis
Forbes
Monday, April 30, 2012

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/04/30/robert-wenzel-to-federal-reserve-leave-the-building-to-the-four-legged-rats/

Somebody finally turned on the lights at the Fed. As a regular subscriber to Wenzel's Economic Policy Journal, I enjoyed reading the full text of  Bob's landmark speech to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last Wednesday. Kudos to Bob on garnering the invitation in the first place. Scott Horton joked on his radio program that it must have been like showing a card trick to a dog (in the words of Bill Hicks).

It's well known that the Fed has discreetly dominated economic journals to quash real criticism. Rather than hurl insults at Fed economists and central planners during a lunchtime gathering in the bank's Liberty Room, Robert tactfully exposed economic fact after economic fact that probably had some in the monetary priesthood questioning the morality of their own careers.

Even though it's a speech more entertaining than effective, this is the chance of a lifetime for an Austrian School economist and I am sure Bob didn't just go for the food. Here are some of the economic gems:
"I scratch my head that somehow most of you on some academic level believe in the theory of supply and demand and how market setting prices result, but yet you deny them in your macro thinking about the economy.

I scratch my head that somehow your conclusions about unemployment are so different than mine and that you call for the printing of money to boost “demand”. A call, I add, that since the founding of the Federal Reserve has resulted in an increase of the money supply by 12,230%.

So you then might tell me that stable prices are only a secondary goal of the Federal Reserve and that your real goal is to prevent serious declines in the economy but, since the start of the Fed, there have been 18 recessions including the Great Depression and the most recent Great Recession. These downturns have resulted in stock market crashes, tens of millions of unemployed and untold business bankruptcies."
Then, he turns his attention to gold:
"In this very building, deep in the underground vaults, sits billions of dollars of gold, held by the Federal Reserve  for foreign governments. The Federal Reserve gives regular tours of these vaults, even to school children. Yet, America’s gold is off limits to seemingly everyone and has never been properly audited. Doesn’t that seem odd to you? If nothing else, does anyone at the Fed know the quality and fineness of the gold at Fort Knox?
In conclusion, it is my belief  that from start to finish  the Fed is a failure. I believe faulty methodology is used, I believe that  the justification for the Fed, to bring price and economic stability, has never been a success. I repeat, prices since the start of the Fed have climbed by 2,241% and there have been over the same period 18 recessions. No one seems to care at the Fed about the gold supposedly backing up the gold certificates on the Fed balance sheet. The emperor has no clothes.
The noose is tightening on your organization, vast amounts of money printing are now required to keep your manipulated economy afloat. It will ultimately result in huge price inflation, or,  if you stop printing, another massive economic crash will occur. There is no other way out."
And of course the memorable grand finale:
"Let’s have one good meal here. Let’s make it a feast. Then I ask you, I plead with you, I beg you all, walk out of here with me, never to come back. It’s the moral and ethical thing to do. Nothing good goes on in this place. Let’s lock the doors and leave the building to the spiders, moths and four-legged rats."

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Sound Money Project Interviews Dr. Edwin Vieira, Jr.

In this part 2 of the Sound Money Project "Dollar in Crisis" series, Dr. Edwin Vieira, Jr. is interviewed at George Mason University by Rutger van Bergem on April 9, 2012.



Part 1 of "Dollar in Crisis" series with Dr. Thomas Rustici on March 27, 2012 can be seen here .

The Sound Money Project Interview with Dr. Judy Shelton on March 14, 2012 can been seen here .

Saturday, June 25, 2011

The U.S. Monetary System and Descent into Fascism: An Interview with Dr. Edwin Vieira

The following interview with Dr. Vieira was conducted in early June of 2011 for the subscribers of The Casey Report – but after careful consideration, we decided that the content is so important; it needs to be shared with a wider audience. Feel free to pass it along.

David Galland
Managing Editor
The Casey Report

http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial.php?page=articles/interview-dr-edwin-vieira&ppref=ZHB231ED0611B

For more than thirty years, Edwin Vieira, Jr., has practiced law, with emphasis on constitutional issues. In the Supreme Court of the United States, he successfully argued or briefed the cases leading to the landmark decisions Abood v. Detroit Board of Education, Chicago Teachers Union v. Hudson, and Communications Workers of America v. Beck, which established constitutional and statutory limitations on the uses to which labor unions, in both the private and the public sectors, may apply fees extracted from nonunion workers as a condition of their employment.

He has written numerous monographs and articles in scholarly journals, and lectured throughout the county. His most recent work on money and banking is the two-volume Pieces of Eight: The Monetary Powers and Disabilities of the United States Constitution (2002), the most comprehensive study in existence of American monetary law and history viewed from a constitutional perspective.

He is also the co-author (under a nom de plume) of the political novel CRA$HMAKER: A Federal Affaire (2000), a not-so-fictional story of an engineered crash of the Federal Reserve System, and the political upheaval it causes.

His latest book is: How to Dethrone the Imperial Judiciary ... and Constitutional "Homeland Security," Volume One, The Nation in Arms .

We first met Dr. Vieira at our Casey Research Boca Raton Summit and were sufficiently impressed to want to hear more, and to share more, of his work with readers of The Casey Report.

DAVID: Before kicking things off, I’d refer readers to Dr. Vieira’s in-depth and excellent paper, "A Cross of Gold," as that provides a more detailed analysis on how the corrupt U.S. monetary system might transition into something more honest and effective.

Getting started, from a big-picture perspective, technically speaking, is the current U.S. monetary system actually constitutional?

EDWIN: Well, technically speaking, factually speaking, legally speaking, no. In a word, no.

DAVID: Why not?

EDWIN: There are two levels to consider. First, there's the straight currency level – what is supposed to be the official monetary unit. Then there is “other,” which I distinguish as different from the official monetary unit because the Constitution doesn’t prohibit private parties from creating media of exchange for their own uses, as long as those media of exchange are non-fraudulent and they’re operated in an otherwise honest commercial fashion.

But the official unit of currency is supposed to be the dollar, and I'll tell you exactly what a dollar is – it's 371.25 grains of silver in the form of a coin. That was determined as a historical fact in 1792. Actually the dollar was adopted before the Constitution was even written. It was adopted by the Continental Congress under the Articles of Confederation, the so-called Spanish milled dollar, which was the actual unit that was circulating then, because there had been essentially no coinage under the various colonial regimes in colonial America. So that's the dollar unit.

Well, do we have that now? The answer is, "Well, essentially, no." First, obviously they are not coining a true dollar, they coin a Liberty Silver Dollar, but that's 480 grains, not 371.25 grains. And you have various gold coinage with dollar denominations on it, but those dollar denominations have no real relationship in terms of market exchange ratio to a silver unit of 371.25 grains.

So the short answer is that within the coinage system we don’t have what we're supposed to have. We have silver coins, we have gold coins, but they’re not properly weighted or regulated. And then, of course, we have these base metallic coins, which have no constitutional status at all – at least with respect to being legal tender for their face values. So on the coinage side, we have a melange and a mess. At least there is some silver and gold coinage, but it doesn’t meet the constitutional requirements.

On the other side, the so-called official paper money side, the Constitution does not provide for official paper money. What it does address are two provisions; the first, dealing with the states, specifically says, "No state shall emit bills of credit." As a word of explanation, bills of credit were the founding fathers' terminology for paper currency.

This is interesting because the paper currency they actually used and emitted were bills of credit that promised to pay something, typically gold and silver coins, specified on the face of the bill. So even those types of paper currency, fully redeemable paper currency, were outlawed for the states because the states had emitted them in vast excess. That was the historical basis for the outlawry.

Now, turning our attention to Congress, you need to recall that Congress only has the powers that are granted to it. You don’t look in the Constitution for prohibitions on Congress's authority and assume that it can do everything that isn't prohibited. You look for delegations of authority, and you assume that anything that hasn’t been delegated is prohibited.

If you look at the original draft of the Constitution in the Constitutional Convention, the Federal Convention of 1787, it said, "Congress shall have the power to borrow money and emit bills on the credit of the United States."

That language was taken from the Articles of Confederation. The Congress operating under those articles had the power to borrow money and emit bills – emit paper currency – and they did it. They emitted the so-called continental currency from which came the phrase "not worth a continental" because they emitted so much of it that it depreciated very close to worthlessness.

At the Constitutional Convention, you had people in attendance who had been members of the Continental Congress. They had been members of various state legislatures. These were the leading political figures in the country. They had to a large extent been the ones who had emitted continental currency or had emitted various state bills of credit. So this was a question that wasn't in some way alien to them as they had been involved in it only a few years earlier.

So the first draft of the Constitution was put forward with the same power that the Continental Congress had, and there was a debate. You look at Madison's notes, and it was a rather vociferous debate, and they threw out the words "emit bills," so that now that provision of the Constitution says, "Congress shall have the power to borrow money on the credit of the United States." It says nothing about emitting bills.

Well, by hypothesis, if the power is proposed and then stricken from the final version, it doesn’t exist, right? You don’t need to be a Harvard law school graduate to understand that.

So we look at those two provisions of the Constitution: One explicitly prohibiting the states from emitting bills of credit, because otherwise the states would retain that power. And the other with respect to Congress, where they didn’t grant the power, even though the power was proposed to be granted and that proposal was overruled, and so it wasn't granted. Based on that it is clear, I would say, that there is no power in Congress or in the states to issue bills of credit.

What we have now is something I think goes almost beyond the bill of credit, though it’s not really fiat currency because the Federal Reserve note, according to the statute, is supposed to be redeemed in "lawful money." So in principle one could go back to the Federal Reserve Bank or one could take it to the Treasury – both have the obligation of redemption – and you could exchange a Federal Reserve note for one of these base metallic coins now in circulation. So, I guess it still could be called a bill of credit in the sense that you can actually receive some coinage, but what is the coinage that you receive?

Interestingly, we had an example of this type of problem in the period around the Civil War. During the Civil War and just after, the Union Government issued “greenbacks” – legal tender U.S. Treasury notes – and that was the first time that the government had purported to issue any kind of paper currency under the Constitution.

They did it once again under a wartime emergency – and for a short time, those things were not redeemed because the government was not paying out gold except as interest on bonds. They had to suspend specie payments during the war, but the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of that issuance of those greenbacks, I think erroneously, but they upheld it specifically on the basis that the greenbacks were to be redeemed in the constitutional currency of gold and silver.

All right, so even the furthest extent of error that has been made by the judicial system, with respect to paper currency, was premised on that paper currency being a true bill of credit in that it would be redeemed in the constitutional coinage of the country.

Well, if you look at the Federal Reserve note, you have a number of problems with it: Number one, it's not issued by the Treasury. It's issued by this banking cartel. No Federal Reserve note can come into existence unless one of the 12 regional banks, each of which is a private corporation, goes to the Board of Governors with certain assets defined in the statute and asks the Board of Governors to generate Federal Reserve notes.

The Board of Governors can't generate Federal Reserve notes on its own, neither can the Treasury. So these things are being generated by a private corporation, and they’re not redeemable as a matter of law in the official constitutional silver or gold currency of the country. So they probably have four or five constitutional strikes against them. Especially if you look at the difference between U.S. Treasury notes and Federal Reserve notes. Treasury notes were always the product of some specific statute enacted by Congress, where Congress would say that so many millions of dollars' worth of these notes are to be emitted.

DAVID: Right, and emitting those notes obviously falls within their right to borrow money.

EDWIN: Well, assuming that that's what they’re doing – and that was the Supreme Court's decision in the legal tender cases after the Civil War – they said, well, that’s a form of borrowing money. It really isn't because it's a form of generating money. You don’t borrow money when you generate money – the concept is nonsense – but even assuming that that's the case, Congress has the power to borrow money and they specify a certain amount of money.

Well, they haven’t specified a certain amount of money to come out of the Federal Reserve system ever. There's absolutely no specification – that's all left to the whim of the Federal Reserve banks. So assuming that Congress had the power to generate Treasury notes, they would do it in a controlled fashion by telling us exactly how much is supposed to come out with each emission. Here they have purported to delegate this power to a consortium of private bankers, so this is like six or seven strikes. This is worse than baseball.

DAVID: And at this point, you really cannot redeem your Federal Reserve notes for anything anywhere. I mean, you can trade them with other people for other goods, and then you can take them to the bank and redeem them in base metal coins worth a fraction of their face value.

EDWIN: Well, initially Federal Reserve notes were required to be redeemed in gold, and then that was removed in '33 and '34 with the gold seizure. So now we have notes that, as John Exter used to say, are an IOU-Nothing Currency – because with respect to the banks and with respect to the Treasury, they owe you nothing, and if you go into the marketplace, you may be able to get whatever someone will give you for them, but you have no legal right to demand any particular amount of anything.

A redeemable currency, by law, is a currency that has a requirement that the issuer redeem it in something that is specified, a certain weight of gold, a certain weight of silver, whatever. So at one time, Federal Reserve notes were redeemable currency.

Now, I suppose, as I said, they’re not a fiat currency because you can get this base metallic stuff for them, but the constitutional requirement, assuming that you could have a bill of credit at all, would be that it had to be paid in the constitutional coinage unit. So this is the problem. Constitutionally, the thing is a first-class mess.

DAVID: So you’ve got eight strikes or so against this currency, constitutionally speaking, and yet the situation persists. Why hasn’t there been a successful challenge to the system in the courts?

EDWIN: Looking at challenges that have come up over the years, I would start by looking back to the '30s, because in the '30s you had two events. The first was a gold seizure followed by the second, the prohibition of gold clauses in contracts.

You had one set of cases that came up to the Supreme Court dealing with the prohibition of gold clause contracts, and one can only look at those and shake one’s head and say, "Well, this is just, you know, fraud, complete double talk, nonsense." And interestingly enough, they never took on the gold seizure. They never decided a case on the gold seizure, even though cases were brought to them. They refused to hear them, and I think the reason was even they knew they couldn't figure out how to justify that one, how to rationalize that.

Subsequently, you’ve had attempts by people to challenge the Federal Open Market Committee in particular, because the Federal Open Market Committee of course is composed not only of the members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Now, arguably, because they’re appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate, you could say they’re officials of the government, although that's an open question that's never really been decided. But the other members of that committee are representatives of the private Federal Reserve regional banks, about which there have been a number of challenges brought on the ground that you can't allow private parties to participate in that kind of a committee – a committee that is essentially making governmental monetary policy.

Every one of those challenges has been thrown out without reaching the merits. They’ve been thrown out on some kind of standing ground – either the courts have refused to hear them at all, or they’ve thrown them out on what I would call tangential grounds, really not getting to the merits. I think the ultimate reason for that is probably out of fear or prudence, depending on how you want to characterize it.

I mean, if I'm a judge and somebody comes to me with one of these cases and says, "I want you to overturn this entire monetary structure by knocking out this important provision or that important provision," I say to myself, "Well, yes, I guess I could do that, legally speaking. I can write an opinion saying that this provision of the law is unconstitutional and it's no longer effective."

But then what happens?

I can't write, in my opinion, an order to Congress to pass a particular statute to correct that situation, so although I can throw a judicial monkey wrench into the gears, I can't do anything to prevent the disaster that will then occur as a result of blowing up that mechanism. Ergo, wearing the hat of a judge, I'm going to stand back and not get involved but rather leave it to Congress to solve, if possible.

DAVID: But once you start down that path where you have, let's say, a certain amount of elasticity on when you follow the Constitution and when you just look the other way, doesn’t that set the stage for all sorts of gyrations and further miscarriages of justice and even fraud? As Doug Casey has commented on numerous occasions, at this point the country is being operated on a very corrupt basis.

EDWIN: Well, I agree with him 100%. After the Civil War, in the Knox v. Lee legal tender case, the Supreme Court could have said, "Yes, we understand this was done during the Civil War, but it’s unconstitutional, and you can't continue with this. And so any contracts that were made in this illegal money will be revalued in constitutional money." If they had taken that position back then, they could have worked it all out because they did just that for the confederate states.

The confederate states were considered to be an illegal operation entirely, a criminal rebellion. The confederate states generated a huge amount of paper currency, and a number of cases came to the Supreme Court after the Civil War dealing with the enforcement of contracts in the confederate states that had been made implicitly or explicitly in confederate money. What were we going to do with these contracts?

And the Supreme Court said, "Well, to the extent the contracts were for an illegal purpose, such as supplying arms to the Confederate Army, then they were void, but if it was a contract to buy wood or something from a farmer or whatever, these people were forced into using that currency because that's where they were, they had no choice, and we will simply revalue those contracts and enforce them for their fair worth, that's just simple equity."

They could have done the exact same thing with respect to the greenbacks of the Civil War – saying that the greenbacks were unconstitutional and let's never do this again. But they didn’t, and as a result set a precedent, and one precedent leads to another, and that's precisely why we're here.

The same thing during the 1930s with the gold clause cases: They could have declared that statute unconstitutional right then and there because nothing had yet happened, but they played this game in the Supreme Court.

DAVID: So, the Supreme Court ducked crucial issues and allowed precedents to be set for the creation of a monetary system that is clearly unconstitutional and, importantly, unsound. So here we are today, with everything totally screwed up. Do you think the monetary system now operating in the U.S. – and around the world, for that matter – can survive as is? Or is it going to have to change, and relatively soon?

EDWIN: Well, it’s going to have to change, raising the questions, “In what direction and under whose control?” Historically, the United States has seen each one of these faulty systems go into self-destruction mode, followed by the government ratcheting things up to the next-higher level.

Thus the First Bank of the United States was followed by the Second Bank of the United States, neither of which was really a central bank. They were just private banks that operated as fiscal agents for the government. And there were a lot of state banks, and these all went into some kind of failure mode.

Along comes the Civil War, and they come up with the National Banking System, which was a cartelization of banks tied into the U.S. Treasury, so they moved it from the level of individual banks – that might have been state chartered or chartered by Congress but were nevertheless essentially separate private entities – into a cartel structure that had a direct connection to the Treasury.

Now that direct connection to the Treasury was that those banks had to buy U.S. Treasury bonds, and then they would deposit those with the Treasury, and they'd get 90% of the value of the bonds back in currency, which they could then use for their own private purposes. That system didn’t work because at that point in time, people were not interested in amassing ever greater federal debt, and the expansion of that banking system depended upon amassing ever greater amounts of federal debt.

Well, that system goes into crisis and what do they do? Do they correct it? No, they go to the next level and give us the national lender of last resort, the Federal Reserve System. Essentially improving the cartel structure. That thing lasts only from 1914 to 1932, about 20 years, before it collapses. Does Roosevelt solve this problem by dealing strictly with fractional reserve? No, he raises it to another level by expanding the powers of the Federal Reserve System and taking gold away from the American people.

That lasts until after World War II, at Bretton Woods, when the United States Federal Reserve System and the Federal Reserve note become the World Central Bank and the World Central Reserve Currency, as a matter of fact, and how long does that last? Until 1971, right? By then, so much gold has left the country because of the profligate policies of Congress, especially the war in Vietnam and Johnson's War on Poverty, that Nixon finally has to stop gold redemption in 1971.

Which brings us to the present, and we are again back in crisis mode, and what are they telling us? "Oh, we've got to go to the next level. We've got to create a New World Central Bank." Maybe this will be the IMF or whatever, but we are going to expand the thing to the next level until we have the final blowout. Because this is what they’ve always done.

DAVID: It seems to me that once the U.S. government starts talking about a global currency that Americans will finally say, "No, enough, we're just not going there.” For a lot of reasons, nationalism and because of the negative examples being provided by the failing experiment with the euro?

While I have long been shocked at the depth of the apathy of the American people, I have a hard time believing they would turn our currency over to the IMF or any international body. If you agree, doesn’t that mean that we could be at the point now – in this crisis – where it's not going to go any further? That the madness stops here?

EDWIN: Yes, I was not saying that their plan will work, rather I was just restating what their plan is. I don’t think it's going to be successful. The euro gives us a good example of why it's not going to be successful. Also, they have another difficulty; to set up a system of this kind, they’re going to have to pass some serious legislation to tie us into some kind of world currency system.

DAVID: Which will never happen.

EDWIN: That's right. Can you imagine what the deadlock would be in Congress over that? So actually we have an opportunity here. The door has finally opened for some serious monetary reform because the other side has come essentially to a dead end.

DAVID: Because they can't keep amassing ever-increasing amounts of national debt. We're reaching the limit on that.

EDWIN: That's right. So here we are, and now the question really comes back to whether there are enough people in America who understand this and are willing to take the appropriate steps to start putting in some alternative?

I don’t think this can be done from the top down. I don’t think Congress is going to solve this problem, and certainly the bankers are not going to give them the right legislation to solve this problem. It has to be solved from the bottom up.

DAVID: Bottom up?

EDWIN: The beauty of the constitutional system is, we have these intermediate political bodies called the state governments that have certain reserved constitutional authority. They haven’t been exercising it for a long time, but it's there, and part of that is monetary, and interestingly enough this has already been decided by the Supreme Court. It's not as if I'm inventing this idea.

After the Civil War, we had a similar situation. Before they went back to gold redemption, you had depreciating legal tender Treasury notes circulating, and there was gold and silver circulating as well. That had not been withdrawn from circulation, so in the first case of this kind, the State of Oregon had a law that required that its taxes be paid in gold and silver coin and someone tried to pay in legal-tender Treasury notes on the theory that Congress has made these legal tender for all debts and therefore that overrides the laws of the State of Oregon requiring payment of taxes in gold and silver.

Well, the case gets all the way to the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court says "No, wrong. The states have residual sovereignty.” They are sovereign governments, except to the extent that they’ve surrendered certain powers to the national government, and one of the powers they have not surrendered is the power of taxation – one of the basic governmental powers. I guess you could include borrowing and spending, so forth and so on, but they have the right to perform basic governmental functions, taxation being one of them.

If a state determines for its own purposes it needs to tax in gold coin and silver coin or bullion, then the state can do it and Congress has nothing to say about it. From which it would follow that step number one would be for a state to start saying, "We’re going to tax or spend or borrow," or whatever, in gold coin, silver coin, gold bullion, silver bullion.

DAVID: Recently there was legislation in Utah defining gold as being legal for settling debts and so forth. Correct?

EDWIN: Well, there's a statute that just came out in Utah, which I would call more of a “making a statement” statute than a substantive statute, because they recognize the United States gold and silver coin as legal tender. Well, they have no choice – it is, that's constitutional. The statute merely recognizes that people can make contracts, enforceable contracts using gold and silver coin, and that's also their right. But it's the first time that a state has actually stood up and said something about monetary policy. Even so, a journey of a thousand leagues begins with a single step, right?

DAVID: Looking at the descent of the dollar and its steep downtrend since 2002 – against other currencies and, of course, gold – one can’t but wonder, how much further can it fall before you get a real crisis? One that the government won’t be able to deal with?

Based on the historical precedent you mentioned, it just continues to go down until it reaches the point they have to come up with something else. Given the strong probability that, in time, the Fed is going to have to step back in with another round of quantitative easing, do you think that could be the trigger for the bottom falling out from under the dollar?

EDWIN: I think so, because of the large percentage of debt required to finance the government at this point – I think it is now running around 46%. Victor Sperandeo has done some work on hyperinflations and found that apparently once that number gets over around 40-41%, that's the end.

According to his work, in every big example of hyperinflation since the French Revolution, that number is apparently the tipping point on the rollercoaster. You’ve gone over the top, and now gravity takes over and down you go to the bottom. They can't stop the thing. So we're now at 46%, at least it was on the 12th of May, 46%, and it doesn’t seem to me there's any will or intelligence in Congress to correct this, and it's not going to be the Federal Reserve that corrects this, it's going to have to be done legislatively.

Of course, the government could do something radical to correct the situation – there is always the “if-then” type analysis, but assuming that they don’t take radical steps to correct it, which seems a safe assumption, that’s the direction we’re heading in.

DAVID: So we could already be over the top on this, as far as this is concerned.

EDWIN: Yes, that’s the fear – and once we're over the top, that's the end of the game. The rollercoaster goes to the bottom. There's no stopping it.

DAVID: Interesting in this whole discussion is that the U.S. has been the driver in the global adoption of the monetary system we now have, starting with Bretton Woods and then when Nixon stopped gold redeemability. At that point, everybody just sort of went along, continuing to use the U.S. dollar as a de facto reserve currency. But all of a sudden, today, you look around and can’t help realizing the problem is global in scale, leaving none of the paper currencies as a viable alternative. Are there any conceivable solutions to a crisis of this scale?

EDWIN: If you want to go back to a sound currency system and a sound political system – and by sound political system, I mean one in which the political powers can't manipulate money – then it has to be tied to some free-market commodity, right? Historically the two that have worked have been gold and silver, and that actually is the constitutional standard, so unless we want to change the Constitution, we have to work with that.

Fortunately it will work, so we can do that. The mechanism for doing it is the question, and as I say, it's got to come through the states. Looking at this from the investor's point of view, I don’t know if there are good investments in the collapse of Western civilization. Which is what we're facing.

DAVID: A lot of people think that if you own gold, enough gold, that you'll come out of this okay. What is your general view on that?

EDWIN: In the hyperinflationary event, if you held something like 15% or 20% of your total portfolio in gold and the rest of it goes to zero, you won't gain anything but you will not lose anything. That said, my interest has never really been in this from an investment point of view, except investment in a political sense.

Looking down the road in an attempt to see what this country will look like if we go through a hyperinflationary event – and if out of that doesn’t come a sound currency and restrictions on the government's power to manipulate money and credit – it appears to me that what could emerge is a first-class fascist police state.

DAVID: Because restricting the government’s ability to manipulate the money also restricts their ability to do everything that they are currently? Putting in those restrictions would then limit them from being involved in so many parts of the economy, as they now are. Obviously, in a monetary system built around sound money, they couldn’t keep spending money at this level.

EDWIN: That's right. If you have a system based on real money, we would not have this elephantiasis of government. So that was the great failure of the Supreme Court not asking, "Wait a minute, if we let them have this, where will that lead?" They didn’t look down the road. Maybe they did. Maybe that's what they wanted. Maybe they were extreme nationalists of the Hamiltonian view of "The more power the better," but an intelligent person will look and say, "Wait a minute, we can't put these powers into the hands of mere politicians."

DAVID: So do you really think a collapse of the Western civilization is avoidable at this point?

EDWIN: No. That's what I'm worried about.

DAVID: It seems avoidable if the politicians acknowledged the reality of the situation and dealt with it accordingly, but do you see any hope that it's politically likely?

EDWIN: Well, I'm going to give it a year or two to see what the states start doing here. We're seeing more and more resistance, at least verbally, coming out of state legislatures and even out of some state governors to various encroachments by the people in Washington. We’ve seen some push-back in the healthcare area, TSA, and then there's this business with illegal immigration, and now some states are beginning to talk about monetary reform.

There's not too much the states can do about TSA. There's probably not too much they can do about healthcare, because that would have to be decided in the courts, and god knows that's a wasteland. Immigration is kind of back and forth/up and down, but on monetary reform, if a state passed the right statute, they could potentially bring that about within 30, 60, or 90 days. Especially if they put in one of these electronic gold/electronic silver type systems, which is off-the-shelf technology.

DAVID: How could it work?

EDWIN: Within 90 days of the passage of the statute, you could have everybody in that state with electronic gold debit cards dialed into the price structure in all of the supermarkets and so forth. People could essentially opt out of the Federal Reserve System if they wanted to.

DAVID: So watching the states for a hopeful plan is something we can do.

EDWIN: That's right, and if they don’t do it within the next year or 18 months, then I would begin to become very pessimistic.

DAVID: Since we’re talking about being pessimistic, let’s talk a bit about the real dark side of all of this – namely that it appears to many that the U.S. is in the early stages of becoming a police state. Supporting that view, there are things I thought I’d never see in my lifetime, institutionally sanctioned renditions and torture, Guantanamo, the recent Supreme Court ruling that police can kick down your door based upon hearing what they consider to be a suspicious noise – the list of things the government is doing these days goes on and on, including the current blatant attempt to assassinate Gaddafi. So where do you think we are on the scale from 1-10, 1 being perfect liberty and 10 being full-on police state?

EDWIN: About 6-1/2 to 7, because they’ve set up the principles for it. You don’t have to have the police breaking in every day to have a police state, you simply have to have the judiciary saying, "If they break in, we'll let them do it." It's the principle of the thing. The NKVD didn’t arrest everybody in Stalin's Russia, but the principle was in place so they could arrest anybody, and that's the problem.

If you type “police brutality” into Google or some other search engine, how many YouTube hits do you think you'll get? Huge number, right? And they become more grotesque every day. If I were a Supreme Court justice, I might look at this and say, "This is the real problem in the country," but of course those people live in an ivory tower, so they don’t know or perhaps care about reality. If they did, they would know enough to know this is becoming a real problem.

So, as a Supreme Court justice, would I want to give them a principle that allows the police to solidify and expand that kind of oppressive behavior? And the answer would have to be, "No, I don’t." The Constitution could never have foreseen this or allowed for this, right?

DAVID: Right.

EDWIN: And yet they allow for it. Now, either this is the biggest bunch of idiots that has ever been assembled in judicial robes in the history of humanity, or there's some other agenda going on here.

DAVID: Assuming that they are not complete idiots, what could that other agenda be?

EDWIN: In my view, and I've written about this for years, the people at the top levels of government understand that their monetary system is inherently flawed. That we're on the Titanic, in a sense, and they know that this ship is going to sink. They don’t know when, but they know when it sinks, they’re going to have a huge amount of economic dislocation, social crisis and civil unrest to the level of revolt.

So they started developing this police state mechanism in the hopes of keeping the lid on the garbage can when the monetary system breaks down. The upper echelons of the judiciary have been going right along with this because they know what the program is. This is obvious. No one in his right mind would stand by and allow the sort of excesses we’ve seen.

Just the other day, the Indiana Supreme Court ruled that the Fourth Amendment doesn’t apply at all because you can sue the police after they’ve mistakenly broken into your home. But when they break into your home and they kill you, then what?

DAVID: Not a lot of recourse then.

EDWIN: Right, like that poor ex-marine that was shot 60 times in Arizona, and he's dead – now what, can he bring a lawsuit? Have we lost our minds? I mean, you don’t have to be a Harvard-educated lawyer to know that this is insanity. This does not rise to the level of just mere error. No one in his right mind can write these kinds of opinions, which means that either they’re insane, which I don’t believe, or they have another agenda, and the judicial opinions are simply camouflage – they’re propaganda to convince us that "Oh well, this is all right" because Judge Flapdoddle told us that it's all right.

DAVID: Likewise, when you look at what's been going on with the government’s spending, which is clearly insane, I mean, who would have thought they could even conceive of running a $1.5 trillion annual deficit?

EDWIN: And going up.

DAVID: And going up, and planning on this continuing well into the future. In your paper "A Cross of Gold," you mentioned that all told, the U.S. government’s total outstanding obligations at this point add up to something like 200 trillion dollars?

EDWIN: Yes, that's Professor Kotlikoff's, at Boston University, figure, not mine.

DAVID: So it’s hard to draw any other conclusion than that the government is operating in a complete fantasy. That everything is completely off the rails. Then you look at the judiciary and some of the things they have approved and looked the other way on, and it sure begins to look like fascism to me.

You and I see it, a lot of our readers look at it, but most people are so passive about it. Everybody is so quiet, and there is nobody making any waves – is that because it's too late? Before you answer, I'll give you just a quick anecdote that I think makes the point.

I was at a party not too long ago with a bunch of young people, and we were talking about some topic that was mildly controversial, and one of them said, "I’d love to look up more about that online, but I don’t want it to be part of my permanent search record.” So, the youth of America already have it in their heads that anything they do online is being monitored and will be in their search records forever and accessible to the government.

Back to my question, have we reached that stage where people are quietly huddling behind the doors of their houses, trying to keep a low profile so the government will leave them alone?

EDWIN: Given the current state of things, I'm sure there are a lot of people deliberately deciding to adopt a low profile, politically or socially. A lot of this has to do not so much with politics but what your neighbors or your coworkers will say about you, right? If you tell them something that is actually happening in the world, you will be labeled a conspiracy theorist; they’ll look at you as if you're crazy.

But what about the activists? At a certain stage, the great mass of people will look around for leadership figures. When the economic crisis comes, they’re going to want someone to tell them how to get out of it. They’re not going to know the answers themselves. The question is, will there be activists, leadership figures, proposing the right solutions – and how soon will they come along?

That's why I look at this Tea Party Movement, using that in a generic sense, an indication of the ground swell of discontent that's out there. There's a huge amount of that, but at this point it's not particularly directed. Of course the establishment is trying to co-opt it, with Gingrich and others trying to claim that they’re leadership figures in this movement, and that deflects it from the direction in which it ought to go.

By contrast, you do have the Ron Paul-type movement. I mean, look at Ron Paul as an example. This is not a charismatic figure. He's a very diffident individual, a very shy individual, not someone that you could possibly imagine as a man on a white horse in a political sense. He certainly has had very little real effect in Congress. He's been the gadfly, he's been the critic, but he hasn’t put in any legislation of consequence that has been passed. He's made a lot of noise about the Federal Reserve, but he's constantly being blocked by the real power structure in Congress in terms of getting anything done there. Yet nevertheless a whole political movement has essentially crystallized around him.

I look at him as the surfer on the wave. The surfer is not the important thing, the wave is the important thing. The surfer would be nowhere without the wave. That wave is out there, and it's just waiting for the right surfer. He's the first one that's come along, but there will be others, perhaps some state governor who is actually competent, and he looks at this monetary system and he says, "To hell with this. Here's what we have to do," and they put in that alternative currency statute, the proper one, not the kind of statement that was made in Utah, but a proper functioning one. In which case he will become the next president of the United States, and then we will see what will happen.

DAVID: Any time the states try to go their own way on issues that the federal government doesn’t like, the federal government starts to threaten them with losing their highway funds or education funds, or whatever. Isn't that part of the problem?

EDWIN: Well, it certainly is part of the problem, and that's why you're going to have to have some real leader in the state who is going to say, "We have priorities, and our first priority is correcting the monetary problem, the currency problem, and we'll worry about those federal education funds later. In fact, what we may do is stop paying some money to the federal government."

Unfortunately, once you allow the federal government to have the kind of influence they now have over the states, the states have essentially rolled over. So, at some stage, they have to say no.

That's why I say that at some point down the line, if we see nothing happening on the state level – if we see these bills being put in and being constantly defeated, and no one comes forward to take leadership on these issues – well, I'll throw up my hands and say, "We just don’t have the leadership group, we don’t have the Patrick Henrys, we don’t have the Thomas Jeffersons, we don’t have the Sam Adams, we just don’t have those people anymore, and that's the end.”

But I don’t believe it will come to that. We have over 300 million people in this country, we can't find a few hundred?

DAVID: Well, we will certainly keep an eye on the states for somebody to show up one of these days. Governor Christie in New Jersey seems like a pretty sound guy.

EDWIN: I want to see just two things, because there are two things of real consequence right now in terms of the major powers of government historically and in terms of political philosophy. Those two things are the power of the purse and the power of the sword. In order to continue spending at the levels it now is, the government has to maintain control over the monetary system, and it has to have some kind of control over military and police force.

Under our Constitution, those two powers are supposed to be ultimately in the hands of the people. We're supposed to have a free-market-oriented and -controlled monetary system based on gold and silver, so the politicians really do not have control over the purse. They have to come to us and ask for taxes. They can't manipulate the money and use inflation as a hidden tax. We've lost that. We failed to assert it – let's put it that way.

On the other side, we see this police state developing, with a centralized Department of Homeland Security in Washington that has tentacles reaching down into every local and state police force. This is completely contrary to the Constitution because the Constitution tells us that the thing that's necessary for the security of a free state is what? A well-regulated militia. And what is a well-regulated militia? It's composed, as the Virginia Declaration of Rights in 1776 said even before the U.S. Constitution, of the body of the people – the people organized in a certain way. Think of Switzerland.

Well, we've lost control over those two key elements, and until we get them back, we can only continue down this road to the full-blown police state. So in sizing up any politician, I'd start by asking them these two things: “What are you going to do in the state to return us to a system of constitutional currency with an alternative system in this state because we can't do it in Congress?” And, number two, “What are you going to do to revitalize some kind of state militia structure, perhaps using Switzerland as the model because they’ve been very successful over the years, so that we are no longer under the control or answerable to Janet Napolitano?”

If the states can’t regain control over those two things, the rest of it is a waste of time. If you don’t have control over the high ground, as the military people would say, then you’ve lost the battle. Education funds, transportation funds, all the rest of this stuff is not even icing on the cake if you let the federal government continue to have those two powers.

They took power over the money a long time ago, and they have been systemically organizing this police state since well before 9/11; in fact, the plans for the Patriot Act were drawn up before 9/11. They understand where the high ground is, and that's why if you are a state politician and you can't answer those two questions – if you don’t tell me that those are your number one and number two priorities – forget it, we'll look to somebody else for leadership.

DAVID: It seems to me that unless and until there is some sort of a push-back on the state level, the situation is going to grow increasingly dangerous, looking for a trigger, so to speak. Much in the way the Arab Spring blew up almost overnight. People looked at that and said, how did that ever happen? These are some of the most oppressed people in the world, ignorant and backwards and everything else, and all of a sudden they are in the streets, risking their lives for more freedom. So, it would seem that it's just a matter of time before we see something akin to an American Spring here.

EDWIN: Oh, I think so, yes. It's just terrible to think that we have to take second seat to the Egyptians in the promotion of liberty. Not to criticize the Egyptians, but Egypt has never been considered to be a country that philosophically was in the forefront of that area.

DAVID: Speaking of Egypt, I think the jury is still out on whether the military will allow the freedom movement there to take power. The Saudis are falling all over themselves to give the Egyptian military money, as is the U.S. government, so it would appear that we're now trying to solidify their power.

EDWIN: Please don’t say “we” when referring to the people in Washington. Don’t include me in that list.

DAVID: (laughs) Doug Casey often says the same thing. And on that note, I’ll sign off by thanking you very much for your time. Let’s do it again some time.

For those of you who wish to hear more from Dr. Vieira, James Turk of the GoldMoney Foundation recently posted a video interview that you may find of interest. Here's the link.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Fed Dictator Bernanke Needs to Be Toppled

By Paul B. Farrell
MarketWatch
Tuesday, February 15, 2011

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-dictator-bernanke-needs-to-be-toppled-2011-02-15

Fed boss Ben Bernanke is the most dangerous human on earth, far more dangerous than Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s 30-year dictator, ever was. Bernanke rules a monetary dictatorship that will trigger the coming third meltdown of the 21st century.

But this reign of economic terror will end.

Just as Mubarak was blind to the economic needs of the masses and democratic reforms, Bernanke is blind to the easy-money legacy that’s set the stage for revolution, turning the rich into super rich while the middle class stagnates and peanuts trickle down to the poor.

Warning, Egypt also had a huge wealth gap before its revolution. Bernanke is the final egomaniac in America’s bubbling 30-year wealth gap, where the top 1% went from owning 9% of America’s wealth to owning 23% during this dictatorship.

Bernanke’s ruling ideology is the culmination of a 30-year economic war that has forged together Reaganomics for the super rich, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan’s toxic allegiance to Wall Street, the extreme Ayn Rand’s capitalist dogma, culminating in the toxic bailouts of Treasury Secretaries Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner, two Wall Street Trojan Horses corrupting government from within.

Since 1981 this monetary dictatorship has caused enormous collateral damage, systematically sabotaging democracy, capitalism and the American dream while fueling the rise of our most dangerous new enemy, China. See “Secret China war plan: trillions in U.S. debt.”

When Obama reappointed Bernanke a couple years ago, “Black Swan’s” Nicholas Taleb was “stunned.” Bernanke “doesn’t even know that he doesn’t understand how things work,” that Bernanke’s economic methods are so inadequate they make “homeopath and alternative healers look empirical and scientific.”

We called Bernanke, the “Captain of the Titanic,” warning that he was setting up the third meltdown of the 21st century, predicted by “Irrational Exuberance’s” Robert Shiller, a coming crash worse than the 2000 dot-com crash and the subprime credit meltdown of 2008 combined. See “Capt. Bernanke sinks the U.S.S. Titanic.”

Inside the Fed: Cassandras, Chicken Littles, governors crying wolf

Unfortunately, as with Egypt’s dictator, the 30-year dictatorship now headed by Bernanke must end soon: And this class war will not be pretty. But it is no black swan; no one can claim they didn’t see a new crash coming.

For several years before the 2008 meltdown we reported on money managers, economists and financial gurus warning of a coming meltdown. They included two Fed governors who warned Greenspan in the early Bush years. And yet, as late as summer 2008 Bernanke, Paulson and Greenspan were systematically dismissing mounting evidence of a mega crash dead ahead.

Read the rest of the article.

For further reading:
"1836: The Death Of Our 2nd Central Bank" , C.J. Maloney, January 31, 2011
"Life without the Fed: The Suffolk System" , C.J. Maloney, Mises Daily , January 5, 2011

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Nicholas Oresme and the First Monetary Treatise

By Jorg Guido Hulsmann
Mises Daily
Tuesday, May 18, 2004

http://mises.org/daily/1516

The practical offshoot of the Austrian theory of money is that the production of money should best be left to the free market. Government interventionism does not improve monetary exchanges; it merely enriches a select few at the expense of all other money users. And on the aesthetic side, the disaster is of course complete: rather than deal with beautiful silver and gold coins, the citizens are compelled by law to hold unbecoming paper notes.

Present-day Austrian economists are not the first to point out that interventionism makes money unsightly and unreliable. Rather, they uphold a tradition of many centuries that includes illustrious economists such as Murray Rothbard, Ludwig von Mises, Carl Menger, Frederic Bastiat, William Gouge, John Wheatley, Etienne de Condillac, and Thomas de Azpilcueta. In fact, this tradition can be traced back right to the very founding father of monetary economics, the great Nicholas Oresme .

Oresme was born around 1320 near Caen in France. After a distinguished career as a scholar and confessor of king Charles V, he became Bishop in 1377 and died in Lisieux in 1382. Oresme was a brilliant mathematician, physicist, and economist. At some point before 1355, he wrote a treatise on the ethics and economics of money production. The book had the title Treatise on the Origin, Nature, Law, and Alterations of Monies , and it established his fame as an economist for all times.

The most adequate modern rendering of the title would be "Treatise on Inflation." Indeed, Oresme pioneered the political economy of inflation; he set standards that would not be surpassed for many centuries, and which in certain respects have not been surpassed at all. A closer look at the book reveals that monetary thinking has been sound at its inception and that present-day Austrians are the heirs of monetary orthodoxy in the true meaning of the word.

Against the State Theory of Money

The very first question of monetary theory is of course: what is money? Oresme answers that money is a commodity; more precisely, it is 1) a quantity of precious metal with 2) a stamp that certifies the metallic fine content. The certification can be provided by a private person or private organization, but it can of course also be provided by some government agency.

By the time Oresme wrote, government had invaded the money certification business for more than 1,500 years, but Oresme insisted that such government involvement did not belong to the nature of money. He thereby rejected the influential state theory of money, according to which it was the state rather than the market who decided what money was. [1]

The state theory of money had been championed in the writings of Plato and Aristotle. It was in fact embodied in the very language in which these philosophers wrote. The Greek word for money was "noumisma"—from "nomos," the Greek word for "law."

Now in the 14 th century, Oresme stressed that the Latin word for money—"moneta"—had a different etymological root. It had nothing to do with the law and the state, but with information and certification. Its root was "moneo" (I inform) "because it informs us that there is fraud neither in the metal nor in the weight." The production of money was therefore not, in its essence, an act of officialdom. It was a market activity. The money producer rendered a certification service. He informed the prospective users of his coins about the metallic fine content. This information was useful because it reduced uncertainty and measuring costs. In the words of Oresme:

When men first began to trade, or to purchase goods with money, the money had no stamp or image, but a quantity of silver or bronze was exchanged for meat and drink and was measured by weight. And since it was tiresome constantly to resort to the scales and difficult to determine the exact equivalent by weighing, and since the seller could not be certain of the metal offered or of its degree of purity, it was wisely ordained by the sages of that time that pieces of money should be made of a given metal and of definite weight and that they should be stamped with a design, known to everybody, to indicate the quality and true weight of the coin, so that suspicion should be averted and the value readily recognized. [2]

Notice that he did not say that the government wisely ordained the creation of coins, but that "the sages"—natural elites in a free society—did this. So where does government come into play? Oresme makes the case for some very minimal form of government involvement in money. His point is that the prince enjoys the citizens’ trust; after all, they follow his judgement in matters of war and peace and therefore are likely to trust his stamp on their coins. Yet Oresme hastens to point out that the princes do not own any coin just because it bears their stamp, and that the princely prerogative to stamp money is really just a matter of expediency. It is a prerogative derived from the fact that money "is essentially established and devised for the good of the community."

Present-day Austrian economists can, by and large, agree with these considerations. They would merely add that competition is the best-known way to identify trustworthy certifiers. And they would also point out that, today, the Oresmian case for the minimal state in money does not hold because it does not apply to any of our political leaders. Public trust in politicians is at an all-time low, and this is not only (but also) because none of them personally leads us into battle anymore.

As we shall see below, there are good reasons to assume that Oresme would concur with this assessment. Were he to live in our day, he would probably qualify our monetary system as tyrannical and urge its reform.

The Case for Parallel Monies

Even though Oresme did not quite see the virtues of competitive money production, he certainly was no starry-eyed constructivist. He did not advocate any one-size-fits-all monetary scheme. He recognized that the precious metals were superior monies because of their physical characteristics, and thus he focused his considerations on metallic monies. But he was far from believing that an optimal monetary system could or should be devised once and for all. In particular, it was for him the most normal thing that gold coins, silver coins, copper coins, and various tokens be in parallel use, and that the exchange rates between these media of exchange should be determined on the market.

Inflation is Unnecessary

The most important practical question in the theory of money is whether there is any case to be made for the political manipulation of the money supply. Are the supplies of gold and silver coins that are spontaneously produced on the free market sufficient? Or should we expect some sort of market failure in the production of money, so that government should step in to improve on market outcomes?

The Austrian position is well known: in money as in any other field production, the competitive cooperation of market participants achieves incomparably better results than the government. Government meddling with money boils down to increasing the money supply beyond the level it would have reached on the free market; that is, it boils down to inflation. This policy is truly anti-social: it does not serve the community of money users as a whole; rather it benefits some members of this community at the expense of all others, thus pitting them against one another. Inflation invariably entails exploitation and social strife. But this is not all. Inflation is not merely a zero-sum exploitation scheme in which some gain what others lose. It actually generates net losses because it deteriorates the very vehicle of social cooperation. Inflation makes money worse and thus people exchange less, which means they cooperate less, which means they are not as productive as they could otherwise have been.

All of these insights can be found in Oresme’s treatise. The author does not use the word inflation, but he most certainly deals with the phenomenon of inflation. In his day, the alteration of coins was the only known inflation technique. Governments did not yet control fractional-reserve banking and paper money, but they could change the certificates stamped on the coins, or change the contents of the coins without changing the certificate. Suppose a monetary economy predominantly uses one-ounce copper coins that feature imprints saying "this coin contains one ounce of fine copper." Now a government bent on inflation could step in and change the imprint to "this coin contains two ounces of fine copper." Thus it would increase the nominal money supply beyond the level it would have attained on the free market. Usually the point of this scheme was to allow the government to pay back its debts according to the letter in nominal terms, but in fact defrauding on its creditors in real terms. In Oresme’s day, governments had to be that crude. Today they have paper money.

Now Oresme stressed that such manipulations serve no good purpose. A mere change of the nominal money supply does not help the economy at all. It merely changes all money prices. The nominal money supply per se was irrelevant for monetary exchanges. Changes of the nominal money supply—the "alteration of names"—did not make money more suitable to be used in indirect exchanges, nor less; such changes merely affected the terms of deferred payments (credit contracts):

And if no other change were made, it would be necessary for goods to be bought or priced at proportionately higher rates. But such a change would be to no purpose, and must not be made, because it would be scandalous and a false denomination. . . . But no other impropriety would ensue, except where pensions or rents were appointed in terms of money.

Thus Oresme clearly grasped the important truth that the nominal money supply is by and large unimportant. The economy can operate with virtually any nominal money supply. At a higher supply, the prices are higher; at a lower supply, they are lower.

Inflation Entails Exploitation and Tyranny

If inflation is wholly unnecessary, the question is of course: why is the nominal money supply being inflated after all? In our day, most people and even most economists have no clue. But in the 14 th century, Oresme anticipated the Austrian answer: Inflation benefits those who create the inflation. It does not affect all money users at the same time, but at different points in time. It therefore creates winners and losers. Politically induced changes of the nominal money supply enrich the government at the expense of the citizenry. Oresme stressed that the government stood ready to gain from inflation; that the greed of governments was in fact the root cause of inflation; and that, once governments gave in to that temptation, they willy-nilly turned themselves into tyrants. In an immortal passage of the Treatise he wrote:

I am of the opinion that the main and final cause why the prince pretends to the power of altering the coinage is the profit or gain which he can get from it; it would otherwise be vain to make so many and so great changes. I propose therefore to give fuller proof that such gain is unjust. For every change of money, except in the very rare cases which I have mentioned, involves forgery and deceit, and cannot be the right of the prince, as has previously been shown. Therefore, from the moment when the prince unjustly usurps this essentially unjust privilege, it is impossible that he can justly take profit from it. Besides, the amount of the prince’s profit is necessarily that of the community’s loss. But whatever loss the prince inflicts on the community is injustice and the act of a tyrant and not of a king, as Aristotle says. And if he should tell the tyrants’ usual lie, that he applies that profit to the public advantage, he must not be believed, because he might as well take my coat and say he needed it for the public service. And Saint Paul says that we are not to do evil that good may come. Nothing should therefore be extorted on the pretence that it will be used for good purposes afterwards. Again, if the prince has the right to make a simple alteration in the coinage and draw some profit from it, he must also have the right to make a greater alteration and draw more profit, and to do this more than once and make still more. . . . And it is probably that he or his successors would go on doing this either of their own motion or by the advice of their council as soon as this was permitted, because human nature is inclined and prone to heap up riches when it can do so with ease. And so the prince would be at length able to draw to himself almost all the money or riches of his subjects and reduce them to slavery. And this would be tyrannical, indeed true and absolute tyranny, as it is represented by philosophers and in ancient history.

It is not too difficult to guess that Bishop Oresme would dismiss our present-day monetary system as the most monstrous (or rather: diabolical) scheme ever concocted to impoverish the "subjects and reduce them to slavery." And most certainly this would not be altogether wrong. It is of course a very different question whether his voice would be pondered by our contemporary ruling classes as much as it was pondered by Charles V and others in the dark ages of the 14 th century. Unfortunately it is not farfetched to assume that, if Oresme were to write today, the usual experts on government payrolls would dismiss him as someone from the lunatic fringe—thus testifying to the improved relationships between intellectuals and rulers in our enlightened age.

Inflation is Destructive

Oresme grasped that inflation was not just a zero-sum game between the government and its subjects, but that it entailed net losses. He stressed four reasons: Gresham’s Law, increased counterfeiting, disruptions of trade, and deception-induced waste. Let us briefly deal with them in turn. First of all, here is Oresme’s formulation of Gresham’s Law:

. . . such alterations and debasements diminish the amount of gold and silver in the realm, since these metals, despite any embargo, are carried abroad, where they command a higher value. For men try to take their money to the places where they believe it to be worth most. And this reduces the material for money in the realm. [3]

Notice that Oresme correctly points out that "bad money drives out good money" only under the impact of government price fixing: the citizens are obliged by law to accept the new bad coins on equal footing with the old good coins. Without such legal tender laws, the money market would behave just like any other market. In a free economy, the better products always drive out inferior competitors.

Oresme also observed that official debasement would invite foreign counterfeiters to seize the opportunity presented by the general confusion over the debased coinage "and thus rob the king of the profit which he thinks he is making." But the largest destruction is likely to be wrought by the disruption of trade. Says Oresme:

Again, because of these alterations, good merchandise or natural riches cease to be brought into a kingdom in which money is so changed, since merchants, other things being equal, prefer to pass over to those places in which they receive sound and good money. Furthermore, in such a kingdom internal trade is disturbed and hindered in many ways by such changes, and while they last, money rents, yearly pensions, rates of hire, cesses and the like, cannot be well and justly taxed or valued, as is well known. Neither can money safely be lent or credit given. Indeed many refuse to give that charitable help on account of such alterations. And yet a sufficiency of metal for coin, merchants and all these other things mentioned are either necessary or highly useful to humanity, and their opposites are prejudicial and hurtful to the whole civil community.

He even anticipated the core idea of the modern Austrian theory of the business cycle.

. . . the prince could thus draw to himself almost all the money of the community and unduly impoverish his subjects. And as some chronic sicknesses are more dangerous than others because they are less perceptible, so such an exaction is the more dangerous the less obvious it is, because its oppression is less quickly felt by the people than it would be in any other form of contribution. And yet no tallage can be heavier, more general or more severe.

To sum up, Oresme realized that increases of the nominal money supply would enrich the princes at the expense of the community. But except for very rare and exceptional emergency situations, this was not the price to be paid for some benefit that could not otherwise be obtained.

Inflation is Worse Than Usury

Economic considerations, important as they may be, were for Oresme only the background story. His true interest was in the morals of money production. He argued that counterfeiting was a far more serious moral offence than the sins that are most frequently associated with the use of money, namely, money changing and usury. Money changing and usury might be tolerable under certain special circumstances. But counterfeiting was inherently unjust and therefore never permissible. He held that a "change of names" (debasement) was scandalous and should never be done. An alteration of the weight without changing the name was similarly "a foul lie and a fraudulent cheat." Alterations of legal-tender money were "quite specially against nature." They are far worse than usury, because usury, at least, springs from the voluntary agreement between a debtor and a creditor, whereas alterations are done without such an agreement and entail the interdiction of the previous money. Said Oresme:

The usurer has lent his money to one who takes it of his own free will, and can then enjoy the use of it and relieve his own necessity with it, and what he repays in excess of the principal is determined by free contract between the parties. But a prince, by unnecessary change in the coinage, plainly takes the money of his subjects against their will, because he forbids the older money to pass current, though it is better, and anyone would prefer it to the bad; and then unnecessarily and without any possible advantage to his subjects, he will give them back worse money. . . . In so far then as he receives more money than he gives, against and beyond the natural use of money, such gain is equivalent to usury; but is worse than usury because it is less voluntary and more against the will of his subjects, incapable of profiting them, and utterly unnecessary. And since the usurer’s interest is not so excessive, or so generally injurious to the many, as this impost, levied tyrannically and fraudulently, against the interest and against the will of the whole community, I doubt whether it should not rather be termed robbery with violence or fraudulent extortion.

Inflation and the Decline of Civilization

Thus inflation is morally repugnant, economically destructive, and entails exploitation and tyranny. And this is not the price to be paid for any social benefit whatever. Inflation is wholly unnecessary. The nominal alteration of the coinage, said Oresme

. . . does not avoid scandal, but begets it . . . and it has many awkward consequences, some of which have already been mentioned, while others will appear later, nor is there any necessity or convenience in doing it, nor can it advantage the commonwealth.

The only beneficiary of inflation seems to be government. Yet Oresme went on to point out that, in the longer run, government does not thrive on inflation either. He observes that in his day, the alteration of coinage was a recent phenomenon; it "was never done in [Christian] cities or kingdoms formerly or now well governed." But the end result of this recent evolution was likely to be the same as in the case of the Roman Empire. Said Oresme:

If the Italians or Romans did in the end make such alterations, as appears from bad ancient money sometimes to be found in the country, this was probably the reason why their noble empire came to nothing. It appears therefore that these changes are so bad that they are essentially impermissible.

Thus Oresme arrived at essentially the same conclusion about the critical role that inflation had played in the decline of ancient civilization as Ludwig von Mises in his "Observations on the Causes of the Decline of Ancient Civilization." [4] And it is likely that our own civilization, which cherishes learning by doing more than learning, will take the same course.

The Remedy: No Government Meddling With Money

Oresme’s devastating analysis of inflation leads to a straightforward policy question: What can be done to curb inflation? How can it be prevented? Oresme’s answer is foreshadowed in the title of his book: the alteration of coinage. Because such alterations were unnecessary and harmful, he argued that they should not be allowed at all (the introduction of a new type of coins was in his eyes not an alteration, if it did not go in hand with outlawing the old coin). More precisely, Oresme charged that the government should never alter money.

Neither the government nor any other single group or individual could rightfully change the coinage. To be licit, such alterations needed the consent of the entire community of money users because money was the property of the commonwealth. Yet Oresme did not champion unbridled democracy. A mere agreement of the entire community would not automatically provide legitimacy to the policy (for example, he argued that money should never be debased for regular revenue purposes). Only if the alteration provided the only means to deal with a great emergency , such as a sudden attack by an overwhelming enemy, could it be licit. In any case, the government did not have the right to alter the coins at all, unless it acted as a mere agent of the citizens. The entire community, not just the government, would have to give its consent.

Very similarly, Ludwig von Mises argued that inflation by its very nature contradicted the principle of popular sovereignty. The only way for the people to keep their government in check was to control the government’s resources. If the government needed more money, therefore, it should approach the citizens to pay higher taxes. Inflating the money supply provided it with more resources than the citizens were ready to contribute. [5]

Conclusion

To the superficial reader, Oresme’s analysis does not appear to be directly applicable to present-day conditions. It is true that our present-day forms of inflation are very different from those of his day. But his analysis of the causes and effects of inflation, and of its moral and political nature, still holds water. Oresme’s successors have refined and extended this analysis in the past 700 years, but they have most of all confirmed his six basic insights:

1) Inflation is predominantly a creature of governments.

2) It harms commerce and the economy, and it entails the decline of civilization.

3) It is not necessary from any larger social point of view—it serves no useful social function. Rather:

4) It creates illegitimate winners and losers. Typically it benefits the government and its allies at the expense of the citizenry.

5) It therefore paves the way to tyranny.

6) The way to get rid of it is to bar government from meddling with money at all.

It is not surprising that Oresme’s work has met with hostility on the part of those who paved the way to our present inflationary regime. They derided it as a manifesto of "metallism" whereas in fact it was a monument to common sense. They put it in "historical context" thus insinuating that its message was dated. But the Treatise on the Alteration of Monies is a milestone in the science of money, a science of universal laws. Nineteenth century champions of sound money such as Leon Wolowski and Wilhelm Roscher were entirely on the mark when they celebrated it for its lasting value. And all friends of liberty should celebrate it today.


[1] The readers of Ludwig von Mises’s Theory of Money and Credit will be familiar with the name of the most important twentieth century champion of the state theory of money, Georg Friedrich Knapp.

[2] He went on: " And that the stamp on coins was instituted as a guarantee of fineness and weight, is clearly proved by the ancient names of coins distinguishable by their stamp or design, such as pound, shilling, penny, halfpenny, as, sextula, and the like, which are names of weights applied to coins . . . "

[3] Gresham’s Law received its name from a nineteenth century British economist, who falsely ascribed its discovery to Thomas Gresham, a sixteenth century financial agent of the English Crown in the city of Antwerp. Oresme was not the first discoverer either. The oldest known version can be found in Aristophanes’s poem "The Frogs."

[4] Mises, Human Action , pp. 761–63.

[5] Mises, Theory of Money and Credit , pp.466–69.

Jorg Guido Hulsmann is senior fellow of the Ludwig von Mises Institute. Reprinted with permission.