After months of stratospheric opinion poll ratings, Mr Koizumi's popularity is on the slide. A very public row with his maverick but well-liked Foreign Minister Mariko Tanaka in January, led to her losing her job and the public losing faith in the prime minister's resolve to push painful reforms through.

Stagnant economy

The backdrop to Mr Koizumi's battle is a decade of economic stagnation.

Tepid growth on the back of the tech boom in the United States prompted the government to declare that salvation was at hand.

But last year all illusions were shattered as global recession brought Japan face to face with some painful truths.

Japanese exporters had been one of the few pillars of strength in an economy weighed down by huge debts, low consumer demand and an uncompetitive domestic industries and services.

Intense pain

When exports hit a brick wall in the early part of 2001 with the rapid slowdown in the United States, Japan spiralled back into recession. The underlying weaknesses in the economy could no longer be covered up.

The economy is suffering a sharp contraction (-0.5% in the third quarter) and even the government admits there is little hope of growth in 2002.

First-time visitors to Japan often get a very different impression. This is still the world's second largest economy. Many Japanese have large savings, and the glitzy department stores in Tokyo and Osaka are packed with well-dressed people snapping up designer goods.

But in the small towns and industrial centres, there are boarded-up shops and job centres thronged with the newly unemployed. Long-delayed corporate restructuring is getting under way and the full impact of the downturn is now being felt.

Political pressure

The prime minister has been increasingly criticised for getting his priorities wrong. He has focused on privatising bloated and money-wasting public corporations - slow and painful work given the strength of resistance in the LDP and the bureaucracy.

Some estimates put the value of non-performing loans as high as $1 trillion - and with record numbers of bankruptcies the figure is growing all the time.

Even Mr Koizumi's insistence on fiscal restraint is being challenged.

No-one questions that public finances will have to be brought under control. Debt currently accounts for more than 130% of GDP, the highest of any G7 country, and Japan's credit rating has been downgraded to the same level as Slovenia.

But economists say budget cuts and talk of tax hikes are dangerous medicine in the depths of a recession.

Export hopes

The biggest threat comes from a deflationary spiral that is pulling prices and incomes ever downwards. It also increase debt burdens and gives consumers little incentive to spend as prices continue to fall.

The BOJ has so far resisted pressure for radical steps to stimulate inflation. But it could be forced to act in a crisis.

The best hope is that the yen will continue to fall in value, and that the United States economy will start to recover in the middle of 2002. Japan hopes it will be able to export its way out of trouble once again. That would provide some temporary relief.