???????? ?????? ?????? ?. ???????????? Bubbles Charles ?. Kindleberger

??????? ???????? ??????? ????? ??????? ?????????? ??? ?????? ????????? ???? ??????-???? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? ???????, ??????? ?????????? ? ???? ???????????? ????????, ????? ?????????????? ????????? ???? ????????? ??????? ?? ?????????? ?? ????????? ? ?????????? ??? ????? ???????????, ? ???????? ???????, ??? ???????, ????????? ??????????, ???????????????? ?? ??????? ? ??????????? ??????? ????????? ?????, ??????? ? ???, ????? ??????? ?? ???????????.

?? ?????????? ??? ?????? ??????? ??????? ? ????????? ? ?????? ??????? ???, ??????? ????????????? ?????????? ????????. ???????? ??????? ? ??? ???????? ?? ??, ??? ? ???, ?????? ??? ???? ????????? ???, ?????? ???????????? ? ??????? ?????????? ????? ???????? ? ??????, ??? ??? ????????????? ????????? ???????, ? ??????????? ??? ????? ???? ????????, ?????? ??????????? ????? ????? (??? ??????), ???? ??????? ????????? ??? ???????. ??????? ????? ? ?? ?????? ??????, ? ????? ?????? ??????????? ???????????? ? ????? ??? ???????? ??????? ? ?????, ? ??? ????? ????? ??????????? ? ???????, ??? ?? ????? ???????? ????????. ?????? ??????????? ???? ???????? ??????? ???????????? ???????? ? 1719-1920 ??. ? ??????, ??????? ??? ??????? ?????? ???, ??????????? ????? ????????? ? ????? ??????, ? ??????????? ? ?? ?? ???????? ???? ? ????????? ? ???????????? ???????? ??????? ???????? ????? ????? ? ???????. ????? ???????? ????????? ????? ??????? ????????? ? ??????????? ????? ? ????????? ? 1636 ?. ? ??????????????? ????? ? ?????? ? 1846?1847 ??. ? ????? ? ??????????? ???????? ?????? ??????? ? ??????? ??? ?????? ????????? ??????: ???? ?? ?? ????????????? ???????? ?????? ??? ??? ???? ???-?? ???? ? ????????, ????? ?? ??????? ????????? ???????? ????????????? 1920-1923 ??. ? ????????, ???? ? ??????? ??? ?? ???????? ? ???????? ?????? ??????? ? ???-????? ? 1919-1921 ??., ????????? ???? ?? ?????? ?? 850 ???. ?? ????? ? 1982 ?.

? ?? ??????????? ??????? ?? ?????? 350 ???. ????????? ?????? ???? ??? ?????? ? ?????? ?????? ? ???, ???????? ?? ?????? ???????? ?????? ??? ??????? ???????????? ??????, ????????????? ??????? ? ??????? ?? ????????????? ???????? ??????? ??? ???????? ?? ?????????? (??., ????????: Flood and Garber, 1980). 25 ???????? ?????? ???????????? ???????? ???? ??????????? ??????????? ????? ?? ?????? ????????? ? ??? ?????????? ? ??????? ??????????? ????????????? ???????, ????? ??????? ?????????? ??????????? ????????????????. ? ??? ???, ?? ????????????, ??? ???????? ???? ?? ????? ??????? ??????????? ?? ????? ??????? ????????, ???? ?????? ?????????? ?? ???????? ??????????? ????????. ? ????????????? ?????????? ???????????? ?????????????, ??? ? ????? ???? ????? ? ???? ????, ????? ??? ????? ??????? ? ???, ??? ??????????? ????? ??????? ?????? ????????? ??????????, ??? ?? ???????? ????? ???? ???????? ? ??????????? ?? ????????? ? ??????????, ???????? ??? ???????????, ? ??? ???? ??????? ??? ?????? ? ???????? ????????? / ????????? ??????????. ???, ????????, ????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ???????? ???????, ??????? ??????????? ? ???????? ???? ????, ??? ?????? ???????????? ?????????? ?? ??????, ? ???????? ?????? ???????????? ?? ?????????, ????????? ??? ????? ???????? ?????????? ???? ?????? ???????????. ?? ????? ?? ?????? ?????????, ??????? ???????????? ??? ??????? ?? ????? ???????? ??????, ? ?? ???? ? ??????????, ???????, ????, ??? ????? ??????????????? ???????? ??????, ????? ?????? ? ???????? ??? ????? ? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?????, ?? ???? ????????? ?????-?????? ???????? ??? ?????, ????????? ???????????? ?? ????? ? ?????? ?????? ???? ??????? ?? ???????. ??????? ??????????, ??????? ? ????????????? ???????? ??????? ??? ?????, ??????? ?????, ???? ? ?? ??????, ??????????? ??????????? ?????????, ??? ????? ????????. ? ???? ???? ????????? ????????? ??????, ?????????, ?????, ??????????? ????????? ? ?????, ???????????? ? ??????? ? ??????????, ???????????????????? ?????, ???? ??????, ???????? ??????, ?????????????? ?????, ?????????????????? ?? ????????? ? ????????????, ???????-747?, ????????????, ??????? ?????????????????? ? ???????, ????????? ???????, ?????, ??????, ??????????? ? ?.?., ? ? ????????? ????? ? ??????????????? ?????????? ??????? ????????????? ???????. ?????? ???? ???????? ??????? ????????? ?????????? ????? ????? ????????, ? ?????????? ????? ???? ????????????? ?? ????????, ????????? ? ?????-?? ?????????? ????? ????, ? ????????, ????? ????????? ????????, ????? ??????????????? ???????? ? ????? ???????, ????????? ?????????, ???????????? ? ??????, ??????? ??????????????????? ? ?.?. ? ??????? ?????????? ?? ??? ??? ??? ??? ?? ??????? ??????????? ???????? ???????, ?? ???? ??????? ?????? ? ???, ???????? ?? ??? ??????.

?? ?? ????? ??????, ??????? ????????????? ?? ?????? ?????????? ???????? ? ???, ??? ???????? 1923 ?. ? ???????? ?? ???? ???????? ???????, ??? ????? ??? ? ???? ??????? ??????? ?????????? (Flood and Garber, 1980). ?????? ???? ??????? ????????????? ????????, ??? ????? ????????? ???????????? ???????? ??????, ?? ?????? ??? ??? ????????, ??? ?????????? ?? ???????? ?????????????? ???????? ???????, ?????? ?? ??????, ??? ?? ?? ????? ????, ? ??-?? ?????????? ??????????????? ????? (Blanchard and Watson, 1982). 26 ?????? ???????? ???????, ????? ? ?????????? ???????????????? ????????? ??? ??????? ???????, ????? ???? ????????? ????????????? ???????? ????? ? ???? ???????? ????? ???????, ??? ??? ????????? ????????? ????????, ? ????? ???? ????? ?????????, ??? ????????? ?????? ??????????? ???????, ????? ??? ??????. ?????? (Minsky, 1982?, 1982b) ???????, ??? ? ?????????? ??????????? ??????????? ?? ????????????? ??????? ???????? ??????????? ????????? ??????? ? ????????????? ? ???, ????? ??? ?????? ????, ? ????? ???????? ??? ????? ???????? ????????? ??????? ?????? ? ???????, ??? ?????? ????? ? ??????. ?????? ????????? ???????????? ?????????? ??????? ?? ??????? ?? ????????????? ?? ????????????? ?????, ??? ??????? ????????? ??????? ???????????? ?? ??????? ???????; ????????????? ?????, ????? ??? ????????? ??????????? ??????? ?????????? ????????? ? ?????? ?????, ????????? ?????? ??????????????? ?? ??????? ????, ??? ????, ?? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?????????; ?????? ?????, ????? ??????? ?????????? ???????? ????? ?? ???? ??????? ?? ??????? ?????? ??????. ??? ????????????? ?????? ??????????? ? ?????? ???????????? ??????? ??? ????, ??? ????? ????? ??? ??????????, ? ?????? ?????, ???????? ? ????????? ??? ?????? ????????? ? ????????, ??????? ?? ?????????????? ?????????????, ? ?????????? ??????? (Flemming, Goldsmith and Melitz, 1982). ??? ?? ????? ???? ? ???, ??? ?? ????? ???? ???????? ??????? ?????????? ??????????? ????? ? ?????????? ??????? ? ?????????? ????? ?????????? ????????, ?????????????? ???????.

?? ???????????? (? ???? ? ???, ??? ??????????? ??????? ?????? ???????????? ????????, ????????, ???????????) ???? ?? ???? ??????????? ??????????? ????? ????? ? ????????, ??? ???? ? ??????? ???, ?????? ???? ?????, ??????????? ??????? (??????? ??????????? ?? 1810, 1819, 1825, 1836, 1847,1857,1866,1890,1921 ??.), ? ????????? ????????????? ????, ??? ??????? ???? ?????? ?????? ?? ???? (Kindleberger, 1978). ???????????? Blanchard, ?. and Watson, M.W. 1982. Bubbles, rational expectations and financial markets. In Crises in the Economic and Financial Structure, ed. P. Wachtel, Lexington. Mass.: Heath. Flemming, J.S., Goldsmith, R.W. and Melitz, J. 1982. Comment. In Financial Crises: Theory, History and Policy, ed. CP. Kindleberger and J.-P.Laffargue, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Flood, R.P. and Garber, P.M. 1980. Market fundamentals versus price-level bubbles: the first tests. Journal of Political Economy 88(4), August, 745-70. Kindleberger, CP. 1978. Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises. New York: Basic Books. Minsky, H.P. 1982a. Can ?It? Happen Again? Essays on Instability and Finance. Armonk: Sharpe. Minsky, H.P. 1982b. The financial instability hypothesis. In Financial Crises: Theory, History and Policy, ed. CP. Kindleberger and J.-P. Laffargue, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

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????????: ??. ???????, ?. ????????, ?. ???????. ????????????? ??????, - ?.: ?????-?, 931 c.. 2004

??? ?? ???? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?. ???????????? Bubbles Charles ?. Kindleberger:

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